Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. On Saturday, the MMA landscape will once again be consumed by a UFC pay-per-view, its final one of the year – and featuring a main event that ranks among the biggest fights it can make right now. It also ranks among one of the deepest cards of the year, from bottom to top. It should be great! And, as usual, here’s a look at the three fights I’ll be watching closest on Saturday night.
Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier
In the final pay-per-view of 2021, the UFC is giving us one of its biggest fights of the year. Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier ranks as one of the greatest UFC fighters to never hold an undisputed world championship, and through two TKO wins over box-office megastar Conor McGregor this year, has elevated himself to become one of the UFC’s most recognizable and popular names. And after nearly 12 years in the Octagon, Poirier is one win away from finally, truly being able to call himself No. 1.
But he faces one last major obstacle, one of the most singularly dangerous finishing threats in the world, champion Charles Oliveira. “Do Bronx” has traveled his own long and winding path to glory, paying off a remarkable career evolution by winning the world title in May. The UFC championship is supposed to signify the best fighter in the world at their weight class. But even as Oliveira finally put gold around his waist after over a decade in the UFC, there was a feeling that he still had unfinished business to prove he deserves that type of acclaim. Once again, Oliveira can defy legions of doubters.
That’s what’s at stake in the main event Saturday night. Both champion and challenger are among the most experienced fighters in UFC history, having debuted with the promotion while still college-age and arriving in their primes as championship-caliber stars. Oliveira debuted in the UFC at 20 years old – now, 28 fights later and at 32 years old, he’s the champion. Poirier debuted at 21 – 26 fights later, and also 32 years old, he’s actually ranked ahead of Oliveira on the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings.
Both sustained plenty of losses and obstacles, and a change of weight, along the way – no champion has lost more UFC fights before finally winning the world title than Oliveira, in fact. And despite both being among the longest-tenured fighters in the UFC, and having spent much of that time concurrently as well-regarded featherweights, the two have somehow never crossed paths until this week.
After losing in almost every big fight of his career and repeatedly struggling badly to make 145, Oliveira moved up to lightweight in 2017 and launched himself into the stratosphere. Oliveira is one of the most dangerous submission threats the sport has ever seen – he’s a cobra on the mat, with an almost unrivaled ability to snatch a finishing hold suddenly, without giving his opponent a chance to do anything about it. And while his striking has lagged behind his grappling for most of his career, we’ve seen the lanky Brazilian level up his stand-up over the course of his title run. Oliveira has three KOs in his 10 wins at lightweight, and starched Michael Chandler with a left hook early in the second round to win the world title in May.
But Oliveira’s title win over Chandler was deeply meaningful beyond being a showcase of Oliveira’s hands. For years, Oliveira was regarded as a fighter who would fold under pressure. “Do Bronx” has put together one the sport’s great highlight reels – his 17 finishes and 14 submissions are UFC records – Oliveira had time and again crumbled before adversity. In the first round of his first world title shot, against one of the sport’s fastest starters, Oliveira found himself in dire, dire trouble. But this time, Oliveira didn’t quit. To become a champion, Oliveira didn’t just have to show the skill we knew he had, he had to show heart. Against Chandler, he showed the world he has that too.
But even as the world titleholder, Oliveira hasn’t been regarded as the top lightweight, as evidenced by those pound-for-pound rankings. With Khabib Nurmagomedov retiring, the two consensus top 155ers were Poirier and Justin Gaethje, but with Poirier embroiled in the McGregor rivalry and Gaethje in the midst of rumored issues with UFC management, neither were available. That’s one of the reasons this fight is so interesting: it’s rare you’ll see a title bout where the champion has more to prove than the challenger.
We know exactly how damn good Dustin Poirier is. Many people regard him as the uncrowned champ. And while two wins over Conor McGregor may not mean nearly as much as they used to – McGregor has become more and more a pathetic shadow of himself since his loss to Khabib – his performances in those fights illustrate how excellent a fighter he’s become, tactically and technically.
Always a powerful slugger willing to get into action-packed fights, Poirier has evolved into one of the best pure boxers in the UFC, and very good defensively when he wants to be. But at his core, Poirier is a scrapper with heavy hands, one who always delivers on the violence.
Ultimately, Poirier has shown a greater level of durability over the course of a lengthy fight than Oliveira has – notably, Oliveira has never fought into the championship rounds. Poirier has the kind of championship toughness and grit, to say nothing of his power and skill, that would make him a deserved favorite.
But Oliveira’s finely honed finishing skills will give him a real chance against anyone, no matter the circumstance. Both fighters almost always deliver on the action. As far as send-offs go, for the UFC in 2021, you can’t do much better.
Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt
The big fight of the night features two main-event caliber fighters who have only continued to get better over time. Poirier, especially, has become one of the biggest stars in the UFC, capable of carrying a pay-per-view on his own. A few years ago, you could have put money on the fact that Cody Garbrandt would have ended up in that same class. Now, he’s hanging on, trying to find a new path at a new weight class.
Garbrandt’s debut at flyweight is one of the most interesting subplots on a very deep UFC 269 card. In 2016, Garbrandt put together a magnificent performance to beat Dominick Cruz and win the UFC bantamweight title – the next year, he nearly knocked out T.J. Dillashaw in the first round of his first title defense, but Dillashaw was saved by the bell. Dillashaw came back in the second to win, and Garbrandt has lost three of four since.
To me, Garbrandt having just a few more seconds of time to finish Dillashaw is one of the great what-if moments in recent MMA history. Instead, Garbrandt has hit an enormous skid. His lack of striking discipline and suspect chin has betrayed him in recent fights, and in an incredibly deep bantamweight division, he’s fallen by the wayside.
Garbrandt started making noise about moving down to 125 in 2020, and even had a flyweight title fight with Deiveson Figueiredo scheduled for late last year – instead, Garbrandt tested positive for COVID, and was replaced by Alex Perez. After what was by all accounts an arduous battle with the virus, Garbrandt took one more fight at 135, against Rob Font in May. Although his chin held up – to be fair, Font isn’t much of a power puncher – Garbrandt had his face nearly jabbed off for five rounds, and appeared befuddled at how to get inside Font’s reach.
Now, it’s desperation time for Garbrandt. He’s a welcome infusion of name recognition for a flyweight division with plenty of fun talent but few household names, but he needs to prove that he can handle the competition at the fastest weight class in MMA. His opponent, Kai Kara-France, seems like an appropriate enough test. Kara-France is dangerous and highly ranked, but not in the immediate title picture. He’s good enough that a win would be a nice feather in Garbrandt’s cap, but not so good that Garbrandt won’t be favored.
But also, don’t be surprised if Kara-France surprises him. The New Zealander is a grizzled young vet – 32 pro fights at the age of 28 – and is coming off his first UFC finish, a first-round KO of Rogerio Bontorin in March. Kara-France is a strong hitter who likes to stand in the pocket and wing powerful hooks, and he has KO thump when he lands them. In the past, Garbrandt has been lured into firefights in situations just like that, and his record in them has grown worse over time.
I have a suspicion that we’ll see someone get starched on Saturday night. For the sake of Cody Garbrandt’s career, he better make sure it’s the other guy.
Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige
Meanwhile, two weight classes up we have what’s shaping up to be a very good featherweight bout featuring the return of one of the division’s most fun contenders. In 2017, Josh Emmett – then a relatively little-known fighter who had only just moved down from lightweight – was called upon on short notice to replace Jose Aldo in a fight with Ricardo Lamas, then considered one of the very best 145-pound fighters in the world. Emmett was a massive underdog. Then, he knocked Lamas stiff in the first round.
The “Fighting Falmer” – a nickname referencing the pale, bald Emmett’s resemblance to a snow elf from Skyrim, and a nickname Emmett has embraced in good humor – was instantly elevated to contender status. Since then, he’s been working to prove he belongs. Emmett enters Saturday night on a three-fight win streak, although he’s coming off an 18-month layoff after suffering several serious leg injuries in a banger of a win over Shane Burgos last June. In that fight, Emmett tore his ACL about 20 seconds into the bout, and gritted through it to win by unanimous decision.
Emmett was on a strong run when he went on the shelf, but he once again has something to prove coming back from such a long time out. I like the matchup they’ve given him – Dan Ige has established himself as a very tough out at 145 pounds, but seems to have hit his ceiling against true top fighters like Calvin Kattar and Chan Sung Jung.
Ige is a tricky, talented boxer who has a tendency to make poor strategic decisions that have led to his downfall. Most recently, against Jung, Ige had started to finally find a groove on the feet in the later rounds, but paradoxically decided to try to grapple in the fifth round instead of pushing the issue standing – already down by multiple rounds on every scorecard, Ige wound up wasting the only chance he might have had.
With a slightly higher fight IQ, or better advice from his coaches, Ige has the talent to really be a factor at the top end of the featherweight division. As it stands, he’s still a tough hurdle for a fighter in Emmett who’s been gone quite a while. I expect a fun striking battle, one where Emmett can thrive. Emmett is one of the heaviest-handed strikers that the featherweight division has on offer, but underrated for his quickness, and as shown by the Burgos fight, very durable.
The featherweight division will be much better off for having Josh Emmett back in it. Very much looking forward to seeing him out there again.
Honorable mentions: Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena (Another likely execution for the GOAT, against a fighter like one fight removed from getting choked unconscious by Germaine de Randamie, of all people), Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (kind of crazy this fight is still happening considering Neal got a DUI like a week ago, but it should be fun), Sean O’Malley vs. Raulian Paiva (always fun to watch Suga Sean do his work), Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz (fascinating bantamweight fight here), Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa (shoey time, bitch).
The Big Fight 