Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. The UFC, for the second straight week, will be dominating the MMA landscape over the next couple days with UFC 268 on Saturday night, a loaded PPV and one of the best cards of the year. Bellator is running Friday afternoon, headlined by Peter Queally and Patricky Pitbull for the vacant lightweight title, but is smartly staying well out of the way.
UFC 268 approaches, and as usual, here’s a look at the three fights I’ll be watching closest Saturday night:
Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington II
It’s been only one week since our last UFC numbered event – also with two world title fights – but the biggest MMA organization is trying to do it bigger and better this time. On Saturday, the UFC will be hosting UFC 268 in front of a sold out crowd at the world’s most famous arena, Madison Square Garden, featuring two championship rematches – and another appearance of the baddest man on the planet.
Kamaru Usman was always considered a special talent, but over his 31-month run as the UFC welterweight champion, he’s elevated himself to all-time great status. Now, he’ll be meeting one of his most famous rivals – elite pressure wrestler and cringeworthy racist piece of shit Colby Covington – in a rematch of Usman’s most epic title defense, from back in Dec. 2019.
Although the bout ended with Usman breaking Covington’s jaw and knocking him out in the fifth round, it’s inarguable that Covington gave him the toughest bout of the run that made Usman the world’s top pound for pound fighter. Although I think it’s overstated how close the matchup really was, Covington probably took at least a round off Usman with his volume striking.
Covington made Usman work, for sure. But at the end of the night Usman actually outlanded his challenger 175-143 – an aspect of the fight that I think a lot of people forget – and there was an obvious difference in the impact of the two men’s punches. Covington is very good at what he does, but against a fighter who’s physically superior to him, who’s every bit as good (or better) of a wrestler as he is, and who hits much, much harder than he does, he didn’t have much of a path to victory.
Since then, I haven’t seen much evidence that the equation has changed. Covington has fought once since his loss to Usman – a September 2020 bout with a version of Tyron Woodley who seemed weirdly uninterested in actually fighting, and was deep into the losing run that ended with him losing a boxing match to a YouTuber. Covington took him down repeatedly and dominated him with little resistance.
Meanwhile, Usman has only continued to ascend. Since their first meeting, Usman famously began training under Trevor Wittman full-time and has emerged as an extremely dangerous striker, not just a dominant wrestler. We’ve seen his boxing improve radically over his last few fights, as Wittman has taught him to fully harness the devastating punching power that was hiding there all along. He’s been one of the UFC’s more active champions: Saturday will be his third title defense of 2021. The first two, against Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal, were resounding KOs.
2021 has been the year where Usman put the doubters to rest and fully emerged as the No. 1 fighter in the world, become an even better and more well-rounded competitor than we thought possible. For years Usman seemed destined to be a souped-up Woodley, a fighter who relied on his physical gifts and grinding wrestling, achieving great heights but boring fans along the way. Instead, he’s become something much more – a true all-time great and a worthy successor to Georges St-Pierre.
So what does Covington need to do to win this fight? Probably the thing he tried to do last time. He knew that he wasn’t going to physically impose himself on Usman and didn’t try. He wanted to outwork him in the stand-up game, using his endless pitter-patter of powerless punches to win in the eyes of the judges. It wasn’t quite enough then, and now he’ll be trying it against a version of Usman who’s much more dangerous standing than he was the first time around.
So how about seeing Kamarudeen break this racist’s jaw again? I’d be cool with that, folks.
Rose Namajunas vs. Zhang Weili II
It was the kick heard around the world, and the kick Zhang Weili never saw coming. Just over a minute into her second UFC strawweight title defense, challenger Rose Namajunas swung a kick that Zhang thought was aimed at her right leg. It wasn’t. As Zhang rolled her body back a half step to dodge the kick, Namajunas’ foot swung up and hit her square in the side of the head, landing with gunshot impact.
Namajunas’ knockout of Zhang to reclaim her strawweight title was one of the standout moments of April’s UFC 261, the promotion’s first show back in front of a full crowd and one of the most memorable shows in UFC history. And the biggest star of the night was Thug Rose, the quiet scrapper from Milwaukee who has never failed to blow away expectations despite seemingly always being overlooked. Now, she’ll have to prove she can do it again.
In just 14 pro fights, the 29-year-old Namajunas has already established herself as perhaps the most successful 115-pound fighter of all time. Namajunas first fought for a world title in just her fourth pro bout, after going from little-known Invicta prelim fighter to star on The Ultimate Fighter 20. In 2017, she stunned the MMA world by knocking out then-dominant champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win the UFC strawweight championship at 25 years old. And in April – just minutes before her teammate Usman knocked Masvidal’s chin into the 15th row – she became the division’s first-ever two-time champ with her knockout of Zhang.
But despite all her accomplishments, Namajunas had seemingly fallen somewhat out of the spotlight in the interim. Jessica Andrade shocked everyone by slamming her unconscious and taking Thug Rose’s title in 2019, and she fell into some inactivity – she didn’t fight for another 14 months, when she returned to beat Andrade by decision in the rematch.
In the meantime, Zhang exploded to the top of the division and promised to become one of the UFC’s breakout stars. It was Zhang – then on an epic winning streak that reached 21 fights before her loss to Namajunas – who stormed through Andrade in 42 seconds to win the title in Aug. 2019, before she retained it against Jedrzejczyk in an unforgettable Fight of the Year war in March 2020.
Zhang seemed like everything the UFC could have ever wanted: a talented female star who promised to be a key factor in opening up the coveted Chinese market. She was going to be one of the main players in the UFC’s marketing machine for many years to come. With one perfect kick, all of that was derailed.
But how much does that one kick actually mean? Does it mean that Namajunas is so much better than Zhang? I’m not so sure. It’s a debate you can go back and forth on forever, but does Thug Rose catching Zhang with a move she wasn’t expecting actually provide a full and honest accounting of their all-around skill relative to one another? Probably no more than the first Matt Serra-GSP fight gave you a real accounting of their skill relative to each other. But nevertheless it was an incredible statement – Thug Rose waltzed in, stared down the UFC’s new golden girl, and knocked her senseless in a minute.
That doesn’t take away from how great of a fighter Zhang has proven herself to be, an extremely tough pressure machine with a finely honed killer instinct and the compulsion to keep coming after you no matter the cost. One shocking KO aside, Zhang is an absolute animal. And her style contrasts nicely with Namajunas, one of the most technical and cultured range strikers you’ll find in women’s MMA, and some KO pop that has reared its head in big moments. That stat that has always blown my mind: Namajunas has only two KO wins in her pro MMA career. Both came in the first round, and both won UFC championships.
I have long ago learned to never doubt Thug Rose, but my heart is behind Zhang on Saturday, if only to give us the real back-and-forth fight we didn’t get to see last time out. I want to see just how good these two women are matched up against one another. I suspect the answer is pretty damn good.
Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler
Remember what I said last week about Petr Yan–Cory Sandhagen last week? Sometimes a fight gets booked, and the second it gets announced, you just know some good shit is coming. I’m sure I wasn’t the only MMA fan who can say this: when the UFC announced Justin Gaethje-Michael Chandler, I almost jumped out of my seat. Ladies and gentlemen, there is some motherfucking violence about to happen.
There are two world title bouts on display from Madison Square Garden on Saturday, but I can’t say a single fight on the card – hell, very few fights this year in general – has generated this level of pure excitement on my end. Two of the best fighters in the UFC’s premier division, two of their most exciting action stars, both positioning themselves for title shots and bringing in a long history of heart-stopping wars and unforgettable highlights.
Both Gaethje and Chandler have all-action styles and some fascinating career parallels. Both were last seen unsuccessfully competing for a world title – Chandler came achingly close to beating Charles Oliveira for the strap earlier this year, while Gaethje wound up having little chance against Khabib Nurmagomedov in what turned out to be Khabib’s retirement fight. With Oliveira and Dustin Poirier fighting for the belt next month, it seems probable that the winner of this fight will get the next shot.
I’ve always had an affinity for Chandler for a few reasons. First, I’ve basically seen his entire career: I remember the former All-American wrestler first popping up in Bellator well over a decade ago, and have watched him every time he’s been out there since. It’s been a very, very fun experience watching Chandler develop from eye-catching prospect to bona fide star, and there aren’t many fighters that I can say I’ve gotten to actively follow the entirety of their career the way I have Chandler. And in that entire time – 12 years, 28 pro fights – I genuinely can’t say that I remember a single boring fight. If he’s had any, they aren’t immediately coming to mind.
Michael Chandler fights generally end very, very badly for someone. Chandler possesses devastating power in both hands and a strong wrestling and submission game, but what really sets him apart is his truly ludicrous explosiveness, which is the great equalizer no matter who he’s facing. He showed against Oliveira that it’s still there even at 35 years old – as long as Chandler still possesses this marvelous athleticism, he’ll be a threat to any lightweight alive.
But it wasn’t all that long ago that Gaethje was in the exact same place that Chandler was. Like Chandler was in Bellator, Gaethje was the acclaimed exciting top star of a major promotion – the World Series of Fighting, pre-PFL rebrand – who signed with the UFC after building his name as one of the top American stars not in the fold. Chandler signed, was given top 10 fighter Dan Hooker, won by resounding knockout and set himself up for UFC stardom. And in 2017, Gaethje signed, was given top 10 fighter Michael Johnson – people forget that MJ was actually ranked No. 5 heading into that fight – won by resounding knockout in one of the craziest fights of the year, and set himself up for UFC stardom.
Both men then hit adversity. Gaethje lost his next two to Eddie Alvarez and Poirier, the first two losses of his career, before carving a bloody swath through the division on his way back to the top. And Chandler had to deal with the crushing disappointment of coming that damn close to beating Oliveira for the world title – as he heads into his late 30s, we’ll have to see if he can pull the same trick Gaethje did.
It’ll be hard. Out of the crucible of those losses to Alvarez and Poirier emerged a much calmer killer, one of the most dangerous fighters alive. At 32 years old, Gaethje isn’t quite the violent idiot we saw getting into insane brawls with the likes of Luis Palomino back in the day. Although still more aggressive than the average fighter, Gaethje has been more selective in the spots he takes, and more defensively responsible. He’s much more built to last over several rounds than Chandler – Chandler starts so fast and goes so hard that we’ve seen him gas desperately in the later rounds many times.
I have a feeling though that this fight might not last long enough to answer questions about the current state of Chandler’s gas tank. That’s the hope, at least. When you get two savages like this in the cage, though, anything can happen.
Honorable mentions: Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera (the New Jersey legend Edgar is going to get an insane pop in MSG), Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo (these two guys may break the all-time record for strikes attempted in three rounds), Alex Pereira vs. Andreas Michailidis (UFC debut for Pereira, one of the world’s best kickboxers), Al Iaquinta vs. Bobby Green (genuinely never thought Ragin’ Al would ever fight again).
The Big Fight 