Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. Bellator led off the weekend on Friday with a show taking place during the daytime back in the United States, because it’s taking place in England – the show is actually going on as I write this, so I’ll skip writing about Douglas Lima–Michael “Venom” Page II. But the UFC show on Saturday low-key has a few bangers on it, although it’s been reduced by fight cancellations recently.
So, as usual, here’s a look at the three fights I’ll be watching closest Saturday:
Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker
I love when someone books a fight and you can immediately tell that something BAD is going to happen. That’s this light heavyweight main event, featuring two of the most powerful knockout artists in the 205-pound division, both at very different stages of their careers. Both Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker can end a fight in a moment. CTE is almost guaranteed.
Take Santos, a frighteningly powerful puncher needing desperately for a win to end a three-fight skid and put himself back into the contender mix at light heavyweight. Take Walker, one of MMA’s premier glass cannons, an incredibly entertaining offensive fighter with a very suspect chin. Yes, that is the good shit. It’s gonna be a car crash.
And it seems set up well for Santos to get right. “Marreta” – Portuguese for “sledgehammer” – took his career to a new level in 2018, when he stopped killing himself trying to make 185 and went up 20 pounds to light heavyweight. His ensuing three-fight KO streak included a deadening of future champ Jan Blachowicz, and earned him a title shot at Jon Jones.
Santos gave Jones one of the fights of his life, taking Jones five rounds – and forcing a relatively controversial split decision – despite absolutely ruining his knee early in the fight. It took him 16 months to return, and since then, he’s been in there with two of the world’s elite. He got Glover Teixeira in what was essentially a title eliminator last November, and fell victim to a classic Glover “Call the ambulance, but not for me!” rally in a third-round loss. Five months later, the ascendant Aleksandar Rakic outpointed Santos in a dull decision, winning with his clinch control and technical distance striking.
All this has left it tough to assess where Santos stands. He’s 37 years old, and after suffering an incredibly traumatic injury – he basically destroyed everything you can destroy in his left knee – was tossed back in there with two of the world’s best light heavyweights. He even managed to look very potent against Glover, coming extremely close to finishing the No. 1 contender on multiple occasions. You’d think that additional time back in the cage, getting his feet underneath him, would help him get back into the groove.
But Walker is an extremely dangerous opponent, and another loss would be devastating. It seems like a very long time since Walker exploded onto the scene as one of the hottest and most hyped prospects the light heavyweight division has seen in years – his first three UFC fights all resulted in quick knockouts, all with amazing style.
Walker hit a wall in Nov. 2019, when a real top light heavyweight, Corey Anderson, knocked him out in two minutes. He looked ineffective against Nikita Krylov last March, and his losing streak nearly reached three in September, when Ryan Spann rocked him badly early in the first round before Walker somehow managed to knock him out with downward elbows as Spann pushed a double-leg against the fence.
The hype has died off Walker, but what’s left is a fighter who’s huge, athletic, has a ton of striking tools, and fights with a lot of creativity and reckless abandon. Combining all that with a rough chin means there is a very, very high chance he gets knocked out at any given moment. Guys like him are fun to watch! And it seems very conceivable that Walker gives Santos trouble – it’s a bit more conceivable, though, that Santos knocks him flat.
This is a fight placed where it was because of the potential for pure action. Let’s hope it delivers.
Kevin Holland vs. Kyle Daukaus
Last week, heavyweight Chris Daukaus was one of the biggest winners coming out of UFC 267. The 32-year-old Philly cop won one of the show’s featured prelims by smoking No. 7-ranked Shamil Abdurakhimov for his fourth straight KO win since signing with the UFC last year. Days later, he inked to face former title challenger Derrick Lewis in December, by far the biggest fight of his life and his chance to become a true championship contender.
Chris Daukaus is on quite the come-up, you gotta say. Can his younger brother Kyle achieve the same kind of buzz? So far, it hasn’t happened for the 28-year-old middleweight, who has lost two of his three UFC bouts since signing last year, albeit both to talented rising fighters: Brendan Allen in June 2020, and Phil Hawes in May.
But let’s not bury the lede here. This fight isn’t notable because of Kyle Daukaus, as interesting as his last name may make him. It’s notable because of the guy he’s fighting. Kevin Holland emerged from relative obscurity to become one of the UFC’s biggest breakout stars of 2020, winning five straight fights and catching the imagination with his laser precision, punching power and brash persona.
When Holland somehow knocked out the great Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza from his butt in December, it felt like we were watching the arrival of a new superstar. However, it all proved to be smoke and mirrors. Souza, as it turns out, was just one fight from retirement. And Holland has since lost 9 of his last 10 rounds.
Derek Brunson brutally exposed Holland’s poor footwork and complete lack of takedown defense in Holland’s first career main event in March, and in what proved to be an ill-advised move, Holland turned around and stepped in to fight Marvin Vettori just three weeks later. Turns out, three weeks isn’t long enough to learn how to stop a takedown.
So how about six months, then? The entire world knows your weakness, and it’s been laid out for all to see multiple times. What do you do, Kevin Holland? The answer: something really fucking interesting. Instead of taking the established path towards improving your wrestling – accepting an offer to train under Daniel Cormier at AKA – Holland linked up with former UFC welterweight champion and two-time Division I national champ Johny Hendricks, who had been living a quiet life as a Texas police officer since retiring from MMA in 2017.
Hendricks had had little involvement in mixed martial arts in the last few years, but a call from Holland, a fellow Texan, brought him back. Hendricks has focused on improving Holland’s wrestling, and will be in Holland’s corner for the first time ever on Saturday. Hendricks has never coached a UFC fighter before – we’ll find out how good that training was.
And I expect it to be tested. Daukaus has made his intentions clear about how he’s going to attack Holland, and said he’ll be content turning his big spotlight into a boring three-round decision. That’ll be his clearest path to victory if he can implement it, because Holland’s length, accuracy and power make him one of the most fearsome striking threats at 185.
All Holland needs is to be good enough that he can implement that part of his game without having to worry too much. Let’s see if he’s taken that step.
The UFC show lost a few fights in recent weeks that would have easily gotten a spot on this list. Diego Ferreira–Grant Dawson looked like an awesome lightweight showdown, but Ferreira withdrew due to injury. I was intrigued by Alexander Hernandez–Leo Santos, but Santos is out. And the return of women’s bantamweight contender Aspen Ladd was called off after Ladd missed weight badly in a genuinely frightening scene on Friday.
So how about let’s go with something with low stakes, but might end up being just some good, clean fun. Niko Price is one of those fighters who always ends up being a good time. Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira has been an entertaining fan favorite for a number of years. Neither of these guys are going anywhere, but shit, they may produce some fireworks.
Price has actually gone the distance in both of his last two fights, a win over Donald Cerrone – later overturned to a no contest because Price failed a drug test – and a loss to Michel Pereira in July. The latter fight was exactly as entertaining as everyone hoped. It devolved into a truly wild brawl, one where Pereira revealed to the world that he had discovered a secret loophole in the Unified Rules: you’re actually allowed to stomp guys in the face, but only if you do a backflip first.
Before that, Price was on a streak of 11 consecutive fights that had ended in finishes, many of them extremely memorable: Price actually won two fights by knockout from his back, knocking out Randy Brown with hammerfists with Brown in his guard in July 2018, and then annihilating James Vick with the greatest upkick of all time in Oct. 2019.
Price is an entertaining striker with poor defense, a suspect chin, good power and a willingness to always mix it up. And while he’s still got some juice left, he’s just bad enough that even a washed up guy like Cerrone can still give him a run. That’s what Oliveira is counting on – 35 fights into his pro career, the 33-year-old looks like he’s slowing down.
Once one of the best under-the-radar contenders at welterweight, Oliveira has lost four of six, including two consecutive defeats by rear-naked choke – rising star Shavkat Rakhmonov debuted with a first-round win in October, and Randy Brown got him with a unique one-armed RNC in April.
People love Oliveira because he does the cowboy gimmick better than Cerrone does, and his fights have generally been entertaining, with quite a few post-fight bonuses throughout his UFC career. This should be some pure MMA comfort food. Settle in, put your feet up, and let’s see what happens.
The Big Fight 