The retirement of Khabib Nurmagomedov has, at last, opened up the UFC lightweight division to the mere mortals. Charles Oliveira is the new champion, and the list of top contenders contains Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, Beneil Dariush and Michael Chandler. What a great group of fighters, and what a great group of diverse and entertaining styles of mixed martial arts.
But there’s a specter looming over all this fun. The specter of another dominating Dagestani grappler, trained and mentored by Khabib himself, storming in and ruining the whole thing for everyone. Because everyone knows that Islam Makhachev is one of the best 155-pounders in the world. It’s just time for the UFC to start booking him like it.
The UFC has been slow-playing Makhachev for the last five years, as he’s reeled off an eight-fight win streak without gaining a significant step-up in competition. He’s looked overwhelming at every turn, a fine product of the North Caucasus grappling tradition with a surprisingly well-rounded game. Makhachev has gradually moved from rolling through the lower tier of the lightweight division to the middle tier, and hasn’t really been challenged over his run. The big step-up hasn’t yet come. At this point, however, Makhachev isn’t giving the UFC a choice.
In a different timeline, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion. Makhachev was originally booked in a main event against former champion Rafael dos Anjos back in October, a fight the 29-year-old likely would have won – dos Anjos, while a legend, has always had a weakness to wrestlers. Beating RDA would have given Makhachev a win with a type of name recognition that could really point his arrow upward.
Instead, Makhachev had to pull out due to a staph infection, famously replaced by Paul Felder on less than a week’s notice. Curiously, however, the UFC made no effort to replace dos Anjos on his schedule with someone around the same level – instead, they handed him Drew Dober, whom some circles loudly extolled as one of the UFC’s most underrated fighters but who in real life was a very favorable stylistic matchup for Makhachev. Dober had absolutely nothing for Makhachev, who finished him by arm-triangle choke in the third.
That earned Makhachev an opportunity at a “ranked” fighter, but ranked in name only: Thiago Moises, a perfectly decent lightweight on a relatively unimpressive three-fight win streak that absolutely no one had ever talked about. Moises all of a sudden jumped into the top 15 after signing to fight Makhachev – is he really better than Arman Tsarukyan? Come on – in a transparent case of the rankings being manipulated to serve the UFC’s preferred narratives.
No one alive thought that Thiago Moises was one of the 15 best lightweights in the world. He was always going to be fodder for Makhachev’s highlight reel. That’s exactly what he was on Saturday, as Makhachev dominated him comprehensively before finishing him with a nasty rear naked choke in the fourth round.
In that sense, the UFC got exactly what they wanted. Makhachev was finally featured at the top of the card and turned in the type of performance that was expected against someone who wasn’t likely to challenge him. What it didn’t do was shed any light on exactly how Makhachev shapes up against the world’s very best, and that opportunity is overdue in coming.
Makhachev appears to have a ridiculous amount of tools: surprisingly comfortable and dynamic southpaw striking, fantastic clinch takedowns, a top game that can beat you in a number of different ways. We haven’t really seen any holes in it yet, but that’s partially because he hasn’t fought anyone who can exploit them. If the UFC is going to continue hyping Makhachev at the level they are, it’s about time to change that.
It seems clear that only a small minority of lightweights pose any threat to the division’s biggest rising star. Now, the time to slow-play has passed.