Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. This weekend of MMA action gives us offerings from the UFC and Bellator, but they’re among the weaker shows either of those organizations has put on in 2021. Of course, the worst shows on paper often end up the most action-packed, so I don’t plan on missing them. But don’t take my advice, because I’m a freak.
At any rate, here’s a look at the three fights I’ll be watching closest this weekend:
Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises, UFC Vegas 31
The UFC lightweight division has had such intrigue around it as of late that it’s almost easy to forget that Khabib Nurmagomedov isn’t there anymore. But don’t fret, Khabib fans – if you loved Khabib, just wait until you get a load of Khabib 2. Or at least, that’s the level at which Islam Makhachev has been hyped over the last few years. If you squint, you can see the resemblance.
I mean, it’s all right there. Like Khabib, Makhachev is also a Dagestani sambo champion fighting at lightweight with an incredibly impressive win-loss record. Like Khabib, he’s known for winning with his dominating grappling. There’s also the personal connection: Makhachev is a longtime close friend and training partner of the lightweight GOAT, who has spent every opportunity over the last few years hyping Makhachev up as the sport’s next great 155er.
That time may finally be arriving. Since eating the only loss of his career in 2015 – Adriano Martins slept him with a crispy counter right in his second UFC appearance – Makhachev has been on a dominant run of seven straight wins, including a complete owning of the highly regarded Drew Dober in March that served as a breakout performance.
The Khabib comparisons will likely follow Makhachev for the rest of his career, but it’s fun to watch exactly how he deviates from the pattern set by his more famous brother-in-arms. Everything Khabib did was to wear down and break his opponent’s spirit, taking them down, controlling them, methodically dominating and beating them remorselessly. But while it’s impossible to liken him to the overwhelming force that Khabib was, Makhachev may actually have more tools in his kit.
Makhachev is a comfortable southpaw striker who has a few more weapons than Khabib did – he actually knows how to kick! – and is very capable of winning a fight at range. He’s a monster in the clinch, boasting some the cleanest trips in the business and some sharp knees when he wants to throw them. And when he’s on top, he has a few different gears. Against a BJJ ace and former ADCC champion like Davi Ramos, he can dominate with his pressure and Khabib-style “smesh” tactics, shutting his opponent down and beating them up. And against a fighter like Dober, a striker with much less to offer off his back, he’s a shark: always looking to advance, always looking to finish.
Here’s a pro tip: don’t fight guys from Dagestan. And at last, Makhachev is getting his close-up. Makhachev was scheduled to get his first big crack at the main event last year in a matchup against former champ Rafael dos Anjos, but had to pull out due to a staph infection – that, combined with numerous COVID-related issues, kept Makhachev out for a year and a half between the Ramos and Dober fights. It’s a shame that we had to lose a can’t-miss banger of a fight like Max Holloway–Yair Rodriguez would have been, but I’m glad Makhachev is finally getting a big spotlight and a potentially big platform towards the top of the rankings.
The relatively unheralded Thiago Moises, then, is the guy standing in his way. Although Moises comes in ranked No. 14 in the lightweight rankings, it was very conspicuous that he wasn’t considered anywhere particularly near the top 15 until he was booked with Makhachev. Then, all of a sudden, he’s a ranked fighter in the UFC’s premier division, off the back of an unconvincing three-fight win streak over Michael Johnson, Bobby Green and Alexander Hernandez.
Still, Moises has his strengths as a fighter. He’s a well-regarded BJJ grappler – although Makhachev has dominated far better than him – and over the last couple fights, he’s looked far more comfortable and confident in the striking game. It still seems quite likely that Makhachev bowls him over, and that’s what he’s there for – to give Makhachev another opponent with an air of legitimacy to put on his record.
But while I get a lot of joy out of watching Makhachev, it’s the fight game, and anything can happen. Either we’ll see another launching pad performance for one of the most hyped young lightweights in the world, or we’ll see one mother of an upset. That’s fine with me, either way.
Miesha Tate vs. Marion Reneau, UFC Vegas 31
I’m interested in the main event because I think Makhachev is very much worth watching, even though it’s definitely on the weak side of main events. The rest of this card isn’t much better. Jeremy Stephens is a piece of shit, Rodolfo Vieira humiliated himself last time he fought, Billy Quarantillo is fun but I don’t think he’s really that good or anything…. wait, Miesha Tate is back?
There’s one out of left field! Tate is one of the most accomplished women in MMA history, having arguably been the No. 1 pound-for-pound female fighter in the world before the rise of Ronda Rousey – in fact, it was Tate who passed the torch to Ronda when they met for the Strikeforce bantamweight title in 2012. Four years later, Tate became a UFC champion herself, submitting Holly Holm to win the 135-pound belt in March 2016. She retired two fights later, and supposedly was working a front-office job in ONE. At no point were people ever really speculating about Miesha Tate’s return. And yet, here she is.
The question, of course, is what exactly Tate can offer in the bantamweight division nearly five years after her last pro fight – she finished her first run on a two-fight losing streak, and her most recent win was actually when she beat Holm. Even in her prime, Tate was never the most talented fighter, although her wrestling and grappling has always deservedly been highly regarded. To me, what set Tate apart was instead her incredible toughness and heart.
Her victory over Holm was one of the most inspiring examples of a fighter never quitting I’ve ever seen in the sport, and one of my favorite moments in UFC history. Down on the scorecards heading into the fifth, Tate came out desperately, pounced on her opportunity, and choked Holm unconscious in an all-time comeback effort.
Tate lost the bantamweight title to Amanda Nunes in her first defense, and followed with a very uninspiring effort against Raquel Pennington in Nov. 2016. Nunes has never relinquished the title she took from Tate, and it would be hard to envision Tate ever giving Nunes a challenge – she was completely unable to assert her grappling attack against Nunes five years ago and got absolutely destroyed on the feet, and that was before Nunes spent the rest of the decade ascending to godhood.
And against Pennington – whom Tate once coached on The Ultimate Fighter – she got jabbed to death for three rounds by another fighter who was able to largely neutralize her game. She’s just not a good stand-up fighter or a dynamic athlete, and if she can’t get her takedown, she’s never had that much to offer. Even worse, those things were all true before she spent five years out of the game. Long layoffs can absolutely destroy a fighter.
You’d hope none of that should matter against Marion Reneau, who’s about as soft of a target the UFC could lob up to Tate after five years away. Reneau is 44 years old and coming off a four-fight losing streak – I’m convinced the UFC has only kept her on the roster to be an easy W for Tate upon her return. Even so, I’m not convinced it will be. Reneau is livelier and more athletic than her age might suggest, she’s pretty strong and well-built, and she shows off an aggressive Muay Thai stand-up game that has forced many opponents to be cautious. She shouldn’t be that difficult to back up and control in the clinch, and her gas tank is suspect, but I could see Tate having issues physically imposing herself and I’d expect Reneau to be the more comfortable striker.
Still, even with all the questions and doubts surrounding Tate, I’m looking forward to seeing her. I was a huge Strikeforce fan, and to me, Tate was one of the organization’s defining presences. 135 has been boring for a while: the return of Miesha Tate could, at the very least, spice things up a little.
Juliana Velasquez vs. Denise Kielholtz, Bellator 262
Bellator’s also on Friday night, but I wouldn’t blame you if you just skipped it altogether – it’s about as weak of a card as Bellator has put on in ages, and you won’t miss much by doing anything else with your Friday night. But at the very least we have a title on the line in the main event, which is worth tuning in for in almost any case.
Bellator’s women’s flyweight division is low-key pretty good, and at the top level I think it might be on par with or even slightly better than the UFC’s. And in December, 34-year-old Brazilian Juliana Velasquez climbed the mountain by beating the previously undefeated Ilima-Lei Macfarlane to win the Bellator title.
And while Velasquez’s victory over Macfarlane wasn’t exactly an aesthetic triumph, it was an impressive accomplishment. Macfarlane had been hyped at a very high level as one of the top female talents Bellator had ever produced, and to that point had delivered on all of it. And while the fight lacked action for large swathes of the 25 minutes, you saw why Velasquez has risen so high: she’s huge for a flyweight, she’s a southpaw striker who uses her range well, and she has a very strong judo game that allows her to engage the grappling on her terms.
And while Velasquez will likely be well favored in her matchup with challenger Denise Kielholtz, her opponent packs some danger. Kielholtz was one of the top flyweight kickboxers in the world before focusing on MMA full-time in 2017, and she has a judo background that’s manifested itself in a few submission wins via such techniques as scarfhold armbars and americanas. But the thing that’s brought her to the dance is the pop in her hands, which she most recently displayed in October, when she knocked Kate Jackson out in just 43 seconds with a great overhand left.
In previous fights, Velasquez’s size and skillset has allowed her to keep the contest at her pace and at her range. That may not be viable against Kielholtz, who has strong finishing instincts and isn’t usually in the cage long: only one of her eight pro fights has gone the distance, and she’s on a run of three straight first-round finishes, of which two came within the first minute.
Velasquez has all the tools, but I’m very interested to see whether Kielholtz can bring the action to her and put her on her heels. At the very least, I’m expecting it to be a lot more entertaining than the Macfarlane fight – although that isn’t a high bar to clear.
The Big Fight 