Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. As it always does the weekend of a UFC pay-per-view, the MMA world revolves for now around the Octagon, with UFC 264 emanating from Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena on Saturday night.
The show features a can’t miss main event and a few other really interesting bouts, and I can’t wait to see it. So, as usual, here’s a look at the three fights I’ll be watching closest on Saturday night:
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor III
Conor McGregor is the most famous and popular mixed martial artist in the world, the biggest money draw in the history of the sport, one of the two or three most visible combat sports athletes of the century, and – to his credit – a legendary knockout machine in the cage. But as we approach five years since McGregor achieved a quality win in the UFC Octagon, is there anything that actually remains of the McGregor mystique?
We’ll always have McGregor’s unbelievable surge to the featherweight title from 2013-15, where the shit-talking Irishman knocked out opponent after opponent and became the biggest star in the world in front of our eyes. When people picture Conor McGregor, that’s who they remember. In 2016, 11 months after he starched Jose Aldo in 13 seconds to win the featherweight title, he stopped Eddie Alvarez in Madison Square Garden to win the lightweight title, becoming the first fighter in UFC history to hold two belts simultaneously.
Since that crowning moment, McGregor has fought three times. In Oct. 2018, in the biggest money fight in UFC history, he was humiliated by Khabib Nurmagomedov. He returned last January, storming through a shop-worn Donald Cerrone in 40 seconds. And six months ago, he stepped into the cage against an old rival, Dustin Poirier, and ate the first knockout loss of his storied career.
It was a rematch of their meeting over six years before, when McGregor knocked out Poirier in less than two minutes in one of the signature performances of his rise to superstardom. McGregor, at the time already hyped as a future champion, made his knockout of Poirier – then already a highly respected featherweight scrapper – one of the jumping-off points of his career. It was the last time a Conor McGregor fight wasn’t the main event of its show, and he was a champion just over a year later.
But a funny thing happened while Conor McGregor was raking in hundreds of millions of dollars and becoming a mainstream celebrity: Dustin Poirier turned himself into a fighting legend. Poirier has spent the last six years fighting an absolute murderer’s row of stars in the UFC’s signature division, going 11-2 with wins over names like Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Max Holloway, Anthony Pettis and Dan Hooker. Having debuted in the UFC at the age of 21 and having been tested repeatedly against high-level opponents, he grew into the sport’s most dangerous force: a grizzled young vet.
By the time he fought McGregor again, he was in his prime. And Poirier put together a masterful gameplan to solve the Conor problem: he fought conservatively in the first round, using his “hillbilly shoulder roll” to avoid Conor’s legendary left hand, while exploiting McGregor’s wide, heavy stance with thumping leg kicks. McGregor looked good early and Poirier lost the first frame, but winning that round was never the point. By the second, Poirier’s kicks had ruined McGregor’s mobility, turning him into a stationary target. From that point on, the result was academic.
When comparing the McGregor that faced Poirier in 2014 to the one we saw in January, I was struck by how much livelier the younger McGregor was on his feet. He’s always favored the wide stance, but 2021 McGregor was much more static and heavy on that lead leg, giving Poirier a glaring target. It’s commonly been speculated that came as a result of his heavy focus on boxing training in the lead-up to his boxing match with Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2017, but McGregor has always had a boxing-centric approach. For whatever reason, however, he just didn’t move the same way.
A young McGregor could seemingly hit you from all angles at once, moving at his opponents relentlessly, never giving them a chance to breathe. And while he tagged Poirier with some good shots in January, it was a lot easier for the Louisianan to get out of range and reset the action. Poirier has always been an extremely entertaining, game brawler, but he’s developed over time into one of the most intelligent strikers in the sport. He knew exactly how to carve Conor up.
Plus, there’s the mental aspect of the fight, one that cannot be overlooked. McGregor at his peak was a fire-breathing demon, but his focus obviously – and understandably – waned after capturing the lightweight title from Alvarez. He had achieved success and fame that were unprecedented in the sport of MMA. How can one possibly maintain the same level of motivation?
Meanwhile, Poirier spent that intervening time working ever harder, grinding at a level never seen before against some of the world’s best. He has been laser-focused to improve and reach an elite level. We’ve seen it many times before: long layoffs can absolutely kill a fighter’s career. Is it possible for Conor McGregor to regain the kind of commitment he needs to match a man like Dustin Poirier?
This may be the UFC’s biggest star ever’s last chance to prove that he can still hang against the world’s very best. The winner will almost undoubtedly get the next shot at another Poirier-type story – a grizzled young vet who moved up to 155 and turned himself into a superstar – in lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. For a fight without a title on the line, I can’t think of bigger stakes.
Stephen Thompson vs. Gilbert Burns
Another title shot may be determined 15 pounds up in the main event. Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman still seems most likely to defend his belt next in a rematch against Colby Covington, who gave the 170-pound king a run for his money in an epic 2019 clash. It probably wouldn’t be my choice, but I understand well enough. But if Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson can look impressive against Gilbert Burns on Saturday night, how could you turn him down?
Out of the top contenders in the 170-pound rankings, Thompson is the only man whom Usman hasn’t beaten. He beat Covington, as has been established. He beat Leon Edwards in 2015. He knocked out Burns earlier this year. He’s twice run through Jorge Masvidal. But he’s never once been in the ring with Thompson, perhaps the last top welterweight who can give him a truly fascinating stylistic matchup.
In terms of pure striking technique, Wonderboy is simply as good as it gets. A highly regarded karateka and undefeated kickboxer, Wonderboy has been one of the most successful UFC welterweights of the past decade based off impeccable movement, distance management and timing. Watching Thompson in his groove is like watching one of the world’s best matadors. He hits you and gets out of the way before you can hit him back. He moves circles around you and makes you feel helpless. He mixes together combinations and kicks that are brilliantly cultured. I don’t think there’s a fighter in the world that Stephen Thompson, at his best, cannot beat.
He was certainly at his best in December, when he put together a masterful display against the talented Geoff Neal for his second straight win. He looked so good in that performance that a lot of people were supporting him getting the next shot at Usman, without another stop along the way. But you can’t argue with a matchup against Burns, another compelling talent whom we haven’t seen the last of in the title picture.
For years, Burns was one of those talented and toolsy fighters who had never quite put it all together. Burns is an impressive physical specimen with elite grappling chops and a well-developed and powerful boxing game, but it was only when he moved up to welterweight in 2019 that his career really took off. Burns became one of the emergent stars of the 170-pound division over the last two years, and had Usman in trouble in the first round of his title shot in February – before Usman regained control of the fight with his jab, turned the tide, and knocked Burns out in the third.
Such is life when you’re facing the best pound-for-pound mixed martial artist in the world at the height of his career. Burns will be able to take heart in the fact that he came closer to beating Usman than anyone has in his undefeated UFC career. And while he doesn’t have the same type of resume in the stand-up game as Thompson does, he hits hard, can swing good leg kicks (which Thompson has proven susceptible to in the past) and has the capability to amp up pressure that can make Thompson uncomfortable.
But one has to be very careful with Thompson, who thrives when opponents are a little bit too aggressive – you need to find that balance of intelligent pressure, which is often difficult in the heat of a fight with a guy who’s already so difficult to hit. What could work in Burns’ favor is his clear grappling advantage, and Thompson’s age: Wonderboy is 38 years old, and has looked perhaps a half-step slower in his recent fights against Neal and Vicente Luque.
At 34 and with a good bit of UFC mileage, Burns isn’t exactly a spring chicken either. That’s part of what makes this fight so fun: besides the fact that it’s two of the top welterweights in the world, both of whom are generally entertaining to watch, with clear stakes. Both have the ability to get back in a title fight, but the clock is ticking, and the urgency is up. That’s a combination of factors that could result in something memorable Saturday night.
The presence of McGregor, the biggest draw in UFC history, on Saturday’s show lessened the need from the UFC’s side to actually pack the card with interesting fights, and we lost two of its best in the last few weeks. Kevin Lee–Sean Brady was to be a fascinating matchup between a formerly elite lightweight moving up to 170 and one of the world’s best welterweight prospects – Lee got injured, again, and they’ll instead meet next month. Hyped bantamweight knockout artist Sean O’Malley was going to get a nice test against the solid, experienced Louis Smolka – Smolka got injured, and instead O’Malley will face the No. 7 ranked bantamweight in New England, Kris Moutinho, a guy who works at a paint factory.
Big respect to Moutinho, an average Joe suddenly tossed the single biggest opportunity of his life. I’ll be pulling for him immensely, but he’ll most likely get one-shotted. But on the undercard, we’ll have a rare appearance from a fighter who looks more like an average Joe than anyone else on the UFC roster, but has decidedly special talents.
If you had never heard of Ryan Hall and I showed you a picture of him, then asked you to guess his occupation, “professional fighter” would probably be the last thing on the list. I’m guessing “accountant” would be No. 1. He physically looks kind of scrawny and unathletic, and always carries himself with a shrug and a detached smirk.
But man, oh man, can this fella grapple. One of the central reasons for the development of Brazilian jiu-jitsu was to allow smaller, less athletic people to defend themselves against more physically impressive foes. Hall embodies that. Yeah, he looks like a nerd. But get him on the mat, and he’ll show you skills that you never thought you’d see.
Hall is a third-degree BJJ black belt who’s been a very successful competitor at a world level, and has since become a very highly regarded teacher who’s put out a number of well-received instructional DVDs. He also loves, and I mean LOVES, leg locks. To the extent where there’s not a single other fighter who fights like him in the entire world. Seek out his fight with Gray Maynard if you can: it’s one of the funniest fights in MMA history. Hall rolled for a leg lock basically every single time Maynard tried to punch him, frustrating the former lightweight title challenger to no end. Hall won a unanimous decision.
He uses the Imanari roll so much that they may have to rename it the “Hall roll.” He’s basically established an entire MMA style around it, as well as the 50/50 guard that he’s pioneered. So far, it’s worked: Hall is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC, befuddling everyone he’s been in the cage with. The one drawback: he never fights. Hall’s win over Maynard came in 2016 – he didn’t fight for two years afterward, before returning to submit a faded B.J. Penn with one of the most picturesque rolling heel hooks in the sport’s history.
He then beat Darren Elkins in July 2019, and hasn’t fought since. That’s yet another two-year layoff. Part of the issue has been injuries, but he’s had a notably tough time booking fights – he’s claimed many times that no one wants to fight him, which may be true, but he’s also stubbornly refused to take “stay-busy” fights against fighters ranked below him. But, turns out, when you’re ranked and then you don’t fight for two years, you’re eventually not going to be ranked anymore. That happened to Hall a few months ago, when the fast-rising Movsar Evloev displaced him in the featherweight top 15. Now, he’s gotta dust off the gloves and get in there with an undefeated prospect.
A very talented German national training in Spain, the 24-year-old Ilia Topuria has a dangerous submission arsenal himself, but has also impressed with the pop in his fists since signing with the UFC last year. Topuria debuted on short notice in October against Youssef Zalal, at the time surging as one of the more hyped young featherweights in the organization. Topuria broke him with his Greco-Roman wrestling chops and superior skill on the ground – two months later, he returned against another lanky submission master, Damon Jackson, and showed off some dangerous boxing in a first-round KO.
Topuria looks like a very crispy young talent, one who combines an impressive skill level in all phases of the game with physicality, athleticism and power. But we don’t know him too well yet, much less how he’ll fare against a fighter like Hall, who’s almost impossible to prepare for since there’s no one else like him in the world.
But I always take pleasure in watching good-looking prospects get their first chance at a real name, and I always take pleasure in watching true originals like Ryan Hall compete. I have no idea how exactly this fight will take shape, but it should be damn fun.
Honorable mentions: Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin, Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira, Jennifer Maia vs. Jessica Eye
The Big Fight 
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