Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. Weeks of waiting and slogging through some truly bad UFC cards have finally led us to one of the biggest and busiest fight weekends of the year, headlined by a UFC pay-per-view with two title fights, a huge Bellator main event, the return of RIZIN, and Claressa Shields‘ dramatic and successful MMA debut on Thursday night.

There’s a whole lot of really, really good shit to talk about. So let’s jump right in. As always, here’s a look at the three fights I’ll be watching closest over the next few days:

Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori II, UFC 263

The king of the middleweights is back. And while Israel Adesanya may no longer have that zero in the loss column – coming up just a bit short 20 pounds up in his light heavyweight title challenge against Jan Blachowicz – perhaps, in the long run, it’s a good thing. Izzy’s probably too skinny to be fighting at 205 anyway. At 185, he’s looking like an unsolvable problem. There are still plenty of great fights for the champ left at middleweight anyway.

And yes, while the fight we all wanted was a rematch between Adesanya and a resurgent Robert Whittaker, the man Adesanya beat to win the world title in 2019, Saturday’s main event isn’t a bad consolation prize. That’s because out of all the fighters Adesanya steamrolled on the way to the top, the one who fought him closest was probably the man he’ll stand across the Octagon from on Saturday night: Italian rising star Marvin Vettori.

In 20 career fights at middleweight, Adesanya is 20-0. 15 of those victories are by knockout; five men managed to last to a decision. Out of those five, only one managed to take a judge’s scorecard: Vettori, who battled Adesanya to a split decision in April 2018, in Adesanya’s second UFC fight.

Neither man has lost a middleweight fight since their first meeting. Adesanya surged to the top with incredible quickness and style – one of the greatest pure strikers to ever grace an MMA arena, Adesanya won interim gold one day short of a year after battling past Vettori, and has largely gone unchallenged at his natural weight class. Still just 31 years old, he looks like an all-time great in the making.

Meanwhile, Vettori has only recently emerged from under the radar. A hard-nosed, pissed-off scrapper with a good top game and nice boxing, Vettori comes from a country where MMA is far from an institution, and had some struggles adapting to the quality of competition in the UFC. The loss to Adesanya sent his UFC record, at the time, to 2-2-1. But in five straight victories since, he’s looked like he’s come into his own as one of the world’s top middleweights – his hands were fantastic in a coming-out-party win over Jack Hermansson in December, and he encountered limited resistance in outwrestling Kevin Holland to a lopsided decision win in April.

Both men have improved greatly since their first meeting three years ago: Adesanya from a hyped kickboxing ace to a dominant world champion, and Vettori from a promising young European prospect into a well-established contender. But here’s the operative question that will determine what happens on Saturday night: has Vettori improved more than Adesanya?

I’m doubtful, especially watching how much trouble Vettori had landing anything on Adesanya in the standup the first time around, and watching how much Adesanya has improved his takedown defense. Vettori unanimously won the third round of their first fight after significantly upping his output on the feet, which in turn set up the takedown: Vettori did little damage, but spent much of the round on top, which earned him one of the few 10-9s scored against Adesanya during his UFC run.

But when you go back and really watch that fight closely, as I did earlier this week, it was striking how little work Vettori actually accomplished. Adesanya was like a ghost on the feet, forcing Vettori to miss over five-sixths of his head strikes and making the Italian pay with his counter-striking. Adesanya has only grown more deadly since, putting together a true virtuoso performance against a much more aggressive and athletic fighter in Paulo Costa last summer.

Vettori’s best chance is to follow the template he set for himself in the third round, chasing him down with pure volume to set up the clinch and the takedown. Vettori is the last middleweight to have any success wrestling Adesanya – he’s been taken down just once in seven fights at 185 since, a list that includes some very good wrestlers. Adesanya is a master of angles, distance and movement. His ringcraft is second to none. He’s proven that you can be skinny and still be tough to take down, based entirely off his footwork and command of space. And every time Vettori enters the range, he’ll be entering the wheelhouse of one of the most cultured and deadly strikers in the game.

I always take pleasure in watching Adesanya work, and Vettori could prove to be a great foil: the kind of fighter aggressive and motivated enough to draw out something aesthetically pleasing. We could be in for a treat in the main event.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno II, UFC 263

We could be in for one HELL of a treat in the co-main event too. Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno had one of 2020’s best fights last December, a five-round war between one of the most powerful flyweights of all time and a challenger who appears to be inhumanly tough. In what could have only been the most fitting possible result, it ended a draw. Spoil yourself and watch it, if you haven’t. Round 2 comes on Saturday night.

Figueiredo’s fantastic performance against Moreno – he would have won a unanimous decision if it wasn’t a point deduction stemming from a low blow in the third round – capped off a Fighter of the Year 2020 campaign, that saw him win three resounding finishes in title fights and perhaps singlehandedly save the imperiled UFC flyweight division.

But Moreno’s performance had to be seen to be believed. Moreno’s eye started to swell shut in the third. He injured his shoulder in the fourth. In the fifth, a strange lump appeared on his left arm, and he stopped using that appendage entirely. He had the most powerful man in the history of his weight class slamming cinderblocks off his skull for 25 minutes. Despite all this, Moreno never stopped scrapping, and put the fear of God into Figueiredo in a fourth round that ranks as one of the single best rounds of MMA I have ever seen.

The result was a fight that was remarkably even. The two fighters were separated by just five total strikes. Both landed multiple takedowns Both landed, and survived, some heart-stopping blows. And even though Figueiredo technically came out ahead on the scorecards, it could have swung either way.

Figueiredo should have the advantage of pure power and strength, which goes unrivaled in the flyweight division. He will always be a threat to just walk in and spark someone early, even against a fighter as freakishly tough as Moreno. But the champion is a vulnerable fighter in several ways: first, he’s hittable, and Moreno did great work off the counter. Second, you can take him down, although you may have trouble holding him there – and while it may be surprising to learn after such a fantastic striking battle, but Moreno has long been hailed for his grappling first, and he’s a jiu-jitsu black belt with 10 career submission wins.

Third, and perhaps most important, there’s the question of Figueiredo’s gas tank. Figueiredo has missed weight before for a title fight – he had to beat Joseph Benavidez twice to beat the belt because he came in above the limit the first time around – and he only just beat the buzzer on Saturday in getting down to 125. He’s already making noise about potentially fighting at 135. And in the first fight, Figueiredo appeared to be flagging some in the third round before getting a second wind from the break caused by the groin strike.

Moreno has never had issues hitting the 125-pound mark, and appeared fresh and game throughout the five-round battle. If this goes five rounds again, I may favor the challenger. That’s what makes this fight so gripping: for a champion who’s appeared so dominant at times, Deiveson Figueiredo has his flaws. Brandon Moreno will have his openings. And if their second fight is even half as entertaining as the first, we could be in for one of the standout matchups of the weekend – and a new flyweight champion.

Douglas Lima vs. Yaroslav Amosov, Bellator 260

There are so many really interesting fights on the UFC show that could occupy this third spot, but when Bellator gives us a main event like this, it’s hard to argue. It’s kind of shocking that Yaroslav Amosov had to wait until he was 25-0 – since the retirement of Khabib Nurmagomedov, the best record in MMA – to get a shot at Bellator’s welterweight title, but better late than never. There should be little doubt at this point that his skills don’t match his wins and losses.

Amosov racked up that lofty record against largely unknown regional competition in Eastern Europe – although he does have a notable early win over KSW champ Roberto Soldic, who’s developed into an excellent fighter – but there was always the promise of great things. Amosov is strong, athletic, and has a fantastic combat sambo background, winning three world titles in a discipline that has proven to be one of the best bases for MMA.

Amosov hasn’t missed a beat since moving to better competition in Bellator, notably outwrestling some of the most decorated wrestlers the promotion has to offer: he’s coming off a decision win over four-time All-American Logan Storley, and his win last February over three-time national champion Ed Ruth was a joy to watch.

Amosov mixes his fantastic skill on the mat with some underrated boxing, flashing a really nice jab in his win over Storley – he did tire in the third round, which led to Storley threatening to put him away with a rear-naked choke, although that came after over 10 minutes fought at an exceptionally grueling pace. Based off his last few fights, it seems doubtful that welterweight champion Douglas Lima is going to wear Amosov out the way Storley did.

Lima’s just not that kind of fighter. He has the skills to pay the bills, for sure: real knockout power in his fists and really good submission skills on the ground. But Lima is coming off a frightfully boring performance in his attempt to become a two-division champion against Gegard Mousasi in October, never showing any urgency and allowing the longtime star to boxercise his way to an easy win.

It was five rounds that never surpassed the intensity of a light spar. It was frustrating to watch, because we know just how good Lima can be – when he’s not backing himself to the cage and standing there, Lima is one of the most accomplished fighters in Bellator’s history, spending the last decade as the king of the organization’s welterweight division.

Only three men have beaten Lima at 170 in the Bellator cage: Ben Askren, Andrey Koreshkov, and Rory MacDonald. That would be very, very good company for Amosov to enter. And as Amosov’s path to victory lies in coming after Lima, taking him down and asserting his game, Lima can’t be passive. He’s going to have to open up and show off those skills that are so heralded. If that happens, we could get one hell of a main event on Friday night.

Honorable mentions: Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz, Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad, Paul Craig vs. Jamahal Hill, Drew Dober vs. Brad Riddell, Lauren Murphy vs. Joanne Calderwood, Hakeem Dawodu vs. Movsar Evloev, Matt Frevola vs. Terrance McKinney, UFC 263; Paul Daley vs. Jason Jackson, Aaron Pico vs. Aiden Lee, Bellator 260; Mikuru Asakura vs. Kleber Koike Erbst, Tofiq Musayev vs. Roberto “Satoshi” de Souza, Kai Asakura vs. Shooto Watanabe, RIZIN 28