This Saturday, one of the most loaded pay-per-view shows of 2021, UFC 263, will come to us from the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The show is a rarity for a couple reasons. First, the impressive amount of depth: when I cover my Three Fights to Watch later this week, I probably won’t even touch Leon Edwards–Nate Diaz, Demian Maia–Belal Muhammad, Drew Dober–Brad Riddell, Paul Craig–Jamahal Hill or Movsar Evloev–Hakeem Dawodu, all of which are cracking matchups.
But secondly, it’s the fact that both of the two title fights headlining the card are actually rematches. In the case of flyweights Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno, it’s an immediate rematch from their 2020 Fight of the Year candidate that went to a draw. And in the case of the main event, the middleweight title bout between Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori, it’s a rerun of an early stop on the rise of two of the world’s best.
I’ll have more on the Figueiredo-Moreno rematch this week, but Adesanya-Vettori is a fascinating rematch because of how rare this particular situation is: two fighters who faced off very early in their careers, then finding their way back in one another’s paths after arriving at a championship level. Both have grown, by leaps and bounds, since their first meeting in April 2018 – which, as it happens, took place in the very same arena they’ll be fighting in on Saturday. But looking back at the first fight between Adesanya and Vettori can be very instructive in what Saturday’s main event may look like.
In 2018, the spotlight of this fight was squarely on Adesanya. Although the 24-year-old Vettori was one of the more interesting young talents at 185 at the time, he had taken some early lumps – Antonio Carlos Junior grinded him to a decision defeat in Dec. 2016, and he ate some big shots a year later in a draw with Omari Akhmedov that most media outlets scored for his opponent.
Vettori was still far under the radar. Meanwhile, Adesanya already seemed like the next anointed star at 185. A well-known and successful pro kickboxing champion, Adesanya had fully committed to MMA just a couple years before, but had earned a reputation as a hotshot prospect, having gone 11-0 with 11 KOs on the regional scene. He had arrived in the Octagon two months before, knocking out Rob Wilkinson in the second round. It was his second UFC fight, and he was already on the main card. Before the year was out, he was getting feature bouts with established gatekeepers Brad Tavares and Derek Brunson. And 364 days after Adesanya battled it out with Vettori, he was winning interim UFC gold in his epic battle with Kelvin Gastelum.
But among every opponent Adesanya faced on his rise to the top, it was Vettori who gave him one of the stiffest tests. Before fighting Vettori, he had never gone the distance, never seen the start of the third round. And until he lost a decision 20 pounds up in his UFC light heavyweight title challenge against Jan Blachowicz, Vettori was the only man to ever take a judge’s scorecard against him.
From the outset, you can see the clash of styles that you’d expect to be replicated on Saturday. Vettori is a hard-nosed fighter who wants to be on the advance, mixing solid technical boxing with good takedowns and a nasty attitude. He’s the man on the front foot, trying to work his way into range and let off combinations – Adesanya, one of the most elusive and technical counter-strikers in the history of the sport, is making him miss.
Vettori has immense trouble landing anything clean on Adesanya, who seems to be reading everything he’s throwing at him and defusing it with fantastic movement, parrying and counters. On the feet, Adesanya keeps Vettori at his range. He wins the first round with his defense more than anything else, although he works the body quite well, landing some sharp kicks.
Even so, one judge, and some fans and media members, gave the first round to Vettori, who at least attempted to press the action for the first five minutes – even though, again, he hardly landed anything. The second is unanimous to Adesanya. It’s in this round where the future champ really starts to assert himself offensively, slipping a head kick and landing a sharp uppercut, affecting him with really damaging calf kicks, and landing a standing elbow that causes Vettori to complain of a phantom eye-poke and flip Adesanya off mid-fight.
Vettori is always an Extremely Pissed Man, and the “eye-poke” seems to turn his anger level up another notch, but through two rounds he’s been outclassed on the feet and his face has gotten marked up. You have to expect that: the Italian is a 24-year-old, from a country that’s not exactly a combat sports hotbed, facing one of the world’s best middleweight kickboxers. But at this point, Vettori has one advantage over Adesanya: strength in the clinch. And in the third, Vettori starts out much more aggressive, chasing Adesanya down with a consistent double jab and finally managing to tie him up and get him to the ground.
Vettori doesn’t achieve that much when he gets him down, but it’s valuable top control nonetheless. He sits in half-guard for a while, Izzy eventually gets up along the fence, but puzzlingly attempts a lateral drop that winds up with Vettori again on top. Vettori wrestles Adesanya to the mat again for another takedown with about two minutes to go, and controls him in the clinch for a good bit of the rest of the round. The clinch control and the takedowns win Vettori the round, even though he generates little meaningful offense out of those positions.
What does this fight tell us about Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori? A few things. Adesanya was a clear cut above Vettori on the feet in the first fight, able to read everything the Italian brought to him and respond without taking damage. Less than one-sixth of Vettori’s head strikes landed, and almost half of his significant strikes went to the legs, and seemingly had little effect. Three years later, Vettori has improved some as a boxer, and you’d expect the hard-nosed contender to again be on the front foot. But I don’t think Vettori has improved to the point where he’ll all of a sudden start actually landing big on the champ – if Adesanya was able to completely nullify a fighter like Paulo Costa, who’s on a different level from Vettori in terms of speed and power, what will Vettori be able to accomplish?
Vettori was able to take a round off Adesanya through landing a couple takedowns, but it’s notable how much Adesanya’s takedown defense has improved since. Rob Wilkinson took Adesanya down three times in Izzy’s UFC debut, and Vettori got him on the mat twice in six attempts. In seven middleweight fights since, Adesanya has only been taken down once: by Gastelum, who went 1-9 on takedown attempts in their April 2019 battle. Along the way, Adesanya even managed to shut out no less of a fantastic wrestler than Derek Brunson, who went 0-7 despite being another fighter with a different level of explosiveness than Vettori.
Adesanya hasn’t done it by bulking up or becoming a top-flight wrestler overnight. In fact, he’s proof positive that you can avoid takedowns at a high level while still being a wiry striker. Adesanya has become a master of the fine art of ringcraft: his footwork and positioning are impeccable, and he’s rarely caught out of position. Successful takedown defense doesn’t just come from being physically strong or having the technique to pull off a good sprawl or whizzer. It comes from where, and how, you’re standing when the other man shoots in. Vettori is coming off a fight against another lanky, talented striker in Kevin Holland, where the Italian took Holland down 11 times and controlled a lopsided unanimous decision. Watch Adesanya and Holland side-by-side and you see the difference: they’re built similarly, but Adesanya understands where to be, when and how to exit out of range, and how to position his feet to nullify takedowns. Holland doesn’t.
The third round does raise an interesting question, however, one that I don’t think has been fully answered. Adesanya is coming off the first loss of his MMA career, against Blachowicz in February. Although I’d give a slight edge on the feet to Blachowicz and his cautious, effective gameplanning, the real separator in the late rounds was a few well-timed takedowns and crucial top control from the Polish champion. When Jan got Izzy down, Izzy couldn’t get up. In that context, it’s understandable – Izzy was moving way up in weight, and it was clear how much bigger Blachowicz was that night. Weight matters.
But in this fight, against another middleweight, Adesanya had some notable trouble getting back to his feet when Vettori was able to get on top. And while Adesanya has improved immensely at avoiding getting taken down, we haven’t seen much notable success from him getting up from bottom position – the sample size is extremely small, especially at 185. He may have improved that aspect as well, but we just haven’t gotten many chances to see it.
What if Vettori can chase Adesanya down, get into the clinch, and bull him to the mat like he did a few times in the third round of their first meeting? Whether or not Adesanya has made these improvements may ultimately end up deciding the fight. Vettori is thicker and more muscular, and there’s little doubt that he’ll enter the cage Saturday night as the physically stronger man. If there’s any path to victory for the challenger, it’s probably that.
It was only up from there after Adesanya and Vettori faced off three years ago, only at different speeds. Adesanya had a belt around his waist only a year later, while Vettori wasn’t fighting real contenders until late 2020. Adesanya has still never lost at 185 – Vettori hasn’t lost since facing the current world champion. And in the same building they first stared each other down, their clash of styles should once again give us a real interesting main event.
The Big Fight 