Last week’s UFC show nearly fell apart at the seams. The Fight Night card emanating from the UFC Apex had no less than 10 fights canceled for various reasons, including its main event between top bantamweights T. J. Dillashaw and Cory Sandhagen – several fights were canceled in the days immediately leading up to the show itself.
But it all wound up being somewhat of a blessing in disguise. While we missed what portended to be a great fight between Dillashaw and Sandhagen, the cancellation meant that the feature bout could be a showcase for one of the UFC’s most exciting rising stars. And in the first main event of her UFC career, Marina Rodriguez lived up to the billing.
Rodriguez, one of the most well-developed Muay Thai stylists in women’s MMA, used all eight limbs to batter a very game Michelle Waterson and run her UFC record to 4-1-2. She looked deadly in the pocket, especially for the first three rounds, throwing big, aggressive combinations and punctuating her striking attack with punishing knees and elbows. Her hands were quick, she landed hard, she owned the clinch, and she used her length advantage to great effect. It was just about everything you could have asked for.
Rodriguez’s win over Waterson solidified the Brazilian’s spot as an in-demand contender, four months after a breakthrough knockout win over the hyped Amanda Ribas. She’s now in the title conversation, but it might be at a different weight class than we were expecting. That’s because the bout between Rodriguez and Waterson, both established strawweights, actually took place at flyweight, a division desperate for new blood.
Rodriguez’s Saturday fight was the 34-year-old Brazilian’s first at 125, after spending the first 16 bouts of her pro career at 115. And while Waterson, who has spent much of her career fighting at 105, looked small for the division (to be fair, she looks small at 115 too), Rodriguez looked right at home. Her 5-foot-6 frame carries 65-inch reach and is quite comparable to other top 125ers – she’s notably an inch taller than Valentina Shevchenko, the all-conquering world champion, and several inches taller than recent title challengers Jessica Andrade and Jennifer Maia.
Now, she could have a title future in whatever division she chooses, either at 115 or 125. It all depends on what she values in the short-term. For her part, Rodriguez seems intent on continuing to fight at 115, and she called out former strawweight world champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk after her win. But if her goal is getting to a championship fight as soon as possible – and at 34, it probably should be – it may behoove her to stay at 125. Shevchenko has all but cleared out the division, and UFC match-makers are digging further and further to find her next challengers. Before Rose Namajunas knocked out Zhang Weili to take the 115-pound title last month, Zhang had been heavily linked to moving up to 125 and being Shevchenko’s next opponent. Now, everyone’s future plans are up in the air.
Meanwhile, Zhang may get a rematch next for the strawweight title, and behind her, 115 is the deepest women’s division in the UFC and one of the deepest overall. The road to a title shot at 125 is much shorter: most likely, one good win over an established flyweight could get her there. That’s all Andrade needed to set her up last month.
Rodriguez has her own obstacles to overcome to truly be championship ready: particularly, subpar takedown defense and grappling acumen. Although Waterson has always had underrated wrestling ability for a fighter of her size, it was distressing to see the much smaller Waterson take Rodriguez down with ease in the fourth round and hold her there for the entirety of the frame. Rodriguez notably struggled in this aspect against Ribas as well, before roaring back and knocking her out early in the second – before that, her only career loss came against former world champ Carla Esparza, a strong wrestler.
Shevchenko’s Muay Thai striking receives the hype, but her excellent takedowns and top control are the meat and potatoes of her all-around game. So if Rodriguez values favorable stylistic matchups over potential speed of getting a title shot, then it may be better to return to 115. Rodriguez is currently ranked No. 6 in the strawweight rankings, and the heights above her are relatively striker-heavy, with fighters like Jedrzejczyk, Zhang and Yan Xiaonan on the path to Namajunas.
Rodriguez’s excellent striking acumen would give her a high level of confidence heading into matchups with fighters who’d be more willing to stay on the feet. That appears to be more likely at 115. And over the coming year, Rodriguez’s chosen path has become one of the most interesting trajectories to watch in the UFC.
The Big Fight 