Another fight weekend is here, baby, and you love to see it. The fact that I’m writing these words on Wednesday means that things are really kicking into gear: not only do we have UFC on Saturday and Bellator on Friday (with the first fight of the Light Heavyweight Grand Prix), but ONE gives us arguably the highlight show of the week, debuting on TNT Wednesday night with two former UFC champions in very tough fights.
It’s going to be a heck of a week for face-punching. So, as usual, here’s a look at the three fights I’ll be watching closest this week.
Adriano Moraes vs. Demetrious Johnson, ONE on TNT 1
It’s been about 18 months since we’ve seen arguably the greatest all-around mixed martial artist in the history of the sport step into the cage. Doubtless that ONE has been saving Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson for just such an occasion as this: a long-awaited title fight in the main event of the promotion’s first show ever on mainstream American TV. This is a big night for ONE Fighting Championship. That’s why you sign a fighter like Mighty Mouse.
Johnson is the greatest 125-pound fighter of all time, and over the course of the last decade he’s put together a track record that is almost unmatched historically. Johnson became the inaugural UFC flyweight champion in 2012 and held the title for six years, during which time he set a UFC record with 11 consecutive successful title defenses and looked so dominant that at times the concept of him losing seemed completely alien.
But for whatever reason, Johnson never resonated with UFC president Dana White, who has long been skeptical of flyweight MMA, as a major star. Even during his title reign, White was threatening to wind up the division. And when Johnson finally lost the title – by very controversial split decision to Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo, whom he had previously knocked out in the first round, in 2018 – the UFC couldn’t wait to get rid of him, shipping him to ONE in an unprecedented star-for-star “trade” for Ben Askren.
Johnson getting sent packing appeared to be one of the first big developments in the end of the UFC flyweight division. Thankfully, Deiveson Figueiredo has helped revitalize that weight class over the last year, but the damage is done: Johnson, still arguably the best flyweight in the world, is now fighting somewhere else. But typical of ONE, they didn’t just hand the title shot to their new star right away: they made Johnson first sweep through their flyweight grand prix tournament in 2019, which he did with relative ease.
Just because Johnson is no longer fighting in the UFC, don’t assume he’s lost a step. He’s still as lightning-quick as ever, setting up every aspect of his total package: his wrestling capability is unmatched, he’s a master of hitting and not getting hit back, and he’s extremely creative in a scramble and when hunting submissions. In the above video, in the final of the flyweight tournament – the last time we’ve seen Johnson in the cage – Danny Kingad, one of the best young flyweights in the world, gave Johnson a real stern challenge. Johnson’s mind, even more so than his physical skills, was just two steps ahead.
It’s seemed fated that Johnson would challenge for the ONE title sooner rather than later, and while we might not have expected that we’d have to wait until 2021, we didn’t expect that a global pandemic would shut everything down for months, now did we? And while Johnson’s wrestling acumen has always been one of his go-to strengths, to implement it he’ll have to get on the ground with one of the flyweight division’s most skilled submission specialists, three-time ONE champion Adriano Moraes.
Moraes has actually been out even longer than Johnson, last fighting in Jan. 2019, when he beat Geje Eustaquio by unanimous decision to finish off an entertaining trilogy and regain his ONE world title. Moraes’ three career pro defeats are all by split decision and he thrives on the front foot: although not a great striker, he attacks you to set up the takedown, and he’s fantastic at grabbing onto submission attempts out of scrambles and transitions. And he’s got an imagination: in the fourth round of his most recent fight with Eustaquio, he nearly finished his rival with a rare Suloev Stretch kneebar.
Moraes will likely try to pressure Johnson and cause some havoc on the ground, but there’s no real weak spot to attack when you fight Demetrious Johnson – he’s so skilled in every single phase of the game and so good at controlling grappling exchanges. Moraes is going to have to catch Johnson in something, but Demetrious Johnson doesn’t get caught. Johnson is still so quick, and moves so well, that Moraes’ usual equation of backing his opponent down and throwing one or two big overhand shots to set up a takedown is going to be difficult to pull off.
It’s just really, really hard to catch a mouse, and Moraes is going to have a special kind of trap to catch this one. Until he definitively loses, Demetrious Johnson is still, to me, the No. 1 flyweight in the world. He has another chance to prove it on Wednesday.
Eddie Alvarez vs. Iuri Lapicus, ONE on TNT 1
Lightweight is the premiere division of mixed martial arts, and over the past decade, we’ve been blessed to see some of the greatest talents in the history of the sport compete at 155. Khabib Nurmagomedov, obviously. Conor McGregor. Dustin Poirier. Tony Ferguson. Justin Gaethje. The list goes on. But when talking about the greatest lightweights of this era of MMA, one name frequently gets left out that shouldn’t: Eddie Alvarez.
A tough, powerful scrapper who seemingly thrives the more chaotic a fight gets, Alvarez is the only male mixed martial artist win world titles in both the UFC and Bellator, notably holding wins over the likes of Rafael dos Anjos (for the UFC title), Michael Chandler (for the Bellator title), Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez, while becoming the first man ever to beat Gaethje in 2017. He lost his title to McGregor in 2016, and after losing to Poirier in 2018, he hit the market as the biggest name free agent in the sport of mixed martial arts.
He ultimately chose to sign with ONE, in one of the biggest signings in the promotion’s history. Alvarez was immediately tipped to surge to the top of their lightweight division. He was, of course, one of the consensus best in the world. But as I mentioned above, ONE isn’t in the habit of just handing things to their hot new stars. They first made him go through one of their homegrown talents, violent Russian bomb-thrower Timofey Nastyukhin, and uh-oh:
The only fighters to knock Alvarez out in the previous 12 years were McGregor and Poirier, two all-time greats. So either the baseline of talent in ONE is actually a bit higher than people might think, or Alvarez is starting to lose a step. Then, in Aug. 2019, ONE put Alvarez in there with one of its longtime mainstays, Eduard Folayang, a very fun wushu striker who has twice held the promotion’s lightweight title. Folayang is tough, flashy and unorthodox, but it was a favorable matchup for Alvarez. And while the former UFC champion came away with a submission victory, Folayang nearly put him away early in the first round, putting him on his behind with a vicious low kick and unloading with a series of ground strikes.
Of course, few fighters are headier in a dangerous moment than Alvarez, and he gave us one of the most exciting comebacks of 2019. But it’s no argument that Alvarez has had a much tougher time standing out from the pack in ONE than anyone would have expected, especially for a fighter who left the UFC still near the very top of the rankings of its deepest division. Perhaps, at 37 years old and coming on nearly 40 professional fights, time and damage is starting to catch up with him.
This is a guy who has thrived in action-packed slugfests, after all. And if Alvarez is starting to fade, ONE certainly isn’t letting up on the guy. On Wednesday, Alvarez is going to be right back in there with another violent young talent, Moldova’s Iuri Lapicus, a 25-year-old who has finished all 14 of his wins inside the distance. Originally from a judo background, Lapicus blends great judo takedowns and submissions with heavy leg kicks and heat-seeking punches that he throws with his entire soul.
Lapicus had his 14-0 record spoiled last fall, when lightweight champion Christian Lee knocked him out in just over two minutes to retain his belt. Even in that short time, Lapicus had moments: he sat Lee down with a right hand in the opening exchange, hit a sweet judo throw, and threatened him with an Achilles lock before Lee stacked him up and caught him with some heavy punches on the ground. Lapicus likely won’t have any fear of Alvarez, and we all remember what happened last time Alvarez was in there with a younger, aggressive finisher from an Eastern Bloc nation.
Alvarez may still have plenty left in the tank, but he’s going to have to make that readily apparent on Wednesday against a guy who’s going to be coming for his head.
Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland, UFC on ABC 2
I suppose the best way to wash the bad taste of an embarrassing loss out of your mouth is to get right back in the cage at the first opportunity. That’s what Kevin Holland is trying to do on Saturday night, as he re-enters the UFC Octagon as a main-event injury replacement, just three weeks after suffering a humiliating, deflating unanimous decision loss to Derek Brunson that sent an accelerating hype train careening off the tracks.
I’ve spent plenty of column space on this website on Holland over the last several months, after the lanky, trash-talking middleweight won five straight UFC fights in 2020 and set himself up for a superstar turn in 2021. But in his first-ever main event, Brunson took him down at will, exposing the major holes in Holland’s game – meanwhile, Holland’s excessive joking and clowning throughout the fight, even as he was getting dominated, prompted significant questions about his mental state and his desire to excel.
After his loss to Brunson, I was left scratching my head about Holland’s future, and I certainly didn’t expect to see Holland in another main event any time soon. But when top contender Darren Till broke his collarbone while training for his scheduled fight for Italian savage Marvin Vettori, Holland – who has shown repeatedly that he has no issue taking fights on short notice – stepped right up. Now, he has the opportunity to make like the Brunson fight never happened, getting another chance at one of the top-ranked middleweights in the world.
This fight arguably has even bigger stakes for Holland than his fight with Brunson. His reputation took a big blow three weeks ago, but another subpar showing in a primetime opportunity will completely nuke his stock. A shame then, perhaps, that such a vital fight for Holland’s career will have to come against one of 185’s strongest young talents.
Noted for giving current world champion Israel Adesanya a tough test very early in their UFC careers, Vettori hasn’t lost since that encounter three years ago, and he’s making some history of his own: just the third Italian-born fighter in UFC history when he debuted in 2016, he’ll be the first Italian to ever main event a UFC show. He’s doing so off the best performance of his career against then-top 5 ranked Jack Hermansson in December, showing off his physical strength and crisp boxing technique. Vettori dropped Hermansson with a great combination in the first round and took control of the fight from that moment on, preventing a fighter who’s thrived on bullying opponents from asserting himself in any way.
Vettori is a very strong boxer, but the secret is out on Holland: you can take him down, and in fact, that’s the best path to victory. Vettori likes to stand, but that’s dangerous with Holland – even in his loss to Brunson he owned the striking exchanges, notably hurting Brunson at the beginning of the second round. That skinny frame belies a lot of pop in his fists. Vettori has scored multiple takedowns in four of his 10 UFC appearances, including a pair against Adesanya, and he may be smart to go back to that well.
After all, how much can Holland improve his takedown defense in just three weeks? When a weakness like that makes itself so apparent, you expect future opponents to exploit it ruthlessly. Whatever work Holland has been able to do in this short period between fights may prove the difference between regaining his hype and losing it forever.
Honorable mention: Arnold Allen vs. Sodiq Yusuff, Nina Ansaroff vs. Mackenzie Dern, Scott Holtzman vs. Mateusz Gamrot, Jack Shore vs. Hunter Azure, UFC on ABC 2; Ryan Bader vs. Lyoto Machida II, Liz Carmouche vs. Vanessa Porto, Jeremy Kennedy vs. Adam Borics, Cat Zingano vs. Olivia Parker, Cody Law vs. Nathan Ghareeb (Let’s go Mountaineers!), Bellator 256; Reug Reug vs. Patrick Schmid, ONE on TNT 1; Azamat Kerefov vs. Rasul Albaskhanov, Nikola Dipchikov vs. Magomedrasul Gasanov, ACA 121
The Big Fight 