Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. As we continue to deal with the fallout of last weekend’s UFC 259 supercard, the Octagon is back in action on Saturday evening, with your weekly ESPN+ show from the Apex in Las Vegas. It’s not the strongest one you’ve ever seen, but there are few pretty interesting fights to dig into.
So, as usual, here’s a look at the three fights I’ll be watching closest this weekend.
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
As we continue to stumble through a worldwide pandemic, we’re left with few things to occupy our time. We all need our hobbies to get us through the day. For instance, I’m finally playing The Witcher 3. Also, I started a shitty MMA blog. And for many people, that’s meant finally getting into controlled violence inside of a cage – I know a number of people who only just started watching mixed martial arts within the last year.
That’s awesome, and I welcome everybody on board. But if you have only gotten into MMA since COVID, it dawns on me that you probably have no idea who Leon Edwards is. There are children nearly two years old who have never heard of Leon Edwards, and have no idea why they should give a shit about him. So, allow Leon Edwards to reintroduce himself.
Because with a win on Saturday, Edwards appears to be set up to be the next challenger for welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, who is rapidly clearing the 170-pound division of all comers. He’s beaten everyone inside the top four of the rankings, including the No. 3 ranked Edwards – not so coincidentally, that was the last time Edwards lost.
That was in Dec. 2015, just Usman’s second UFC fight, and before both men would rise to the top of the welterweight division. Edwards has reeled off eight consecutive wins since then, although for a variety of reasons – various injuries, a reluctance to face fighters ranked below him, significant COVID-related hindrances – he hasn’t fought since he outpointed former lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos in July 2019.
Edwards had significant time to burn. He’s still just 29. He was originally supposed to fight one-time world champ Tyron Woodley last March, but the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic forced that fight to be moved out of Edwards’ native England, and travel restrictions scuttled the bout. That spot, and that shine, eventually went to Gilbert Burns.
After reportedly turning down several fight offers – including one with the brilliant Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson – Edwards was essentially strong-armed into accepting a fight with ascendant star Khamzat Chimaev. That bout was postponed and canceled multiple times due to Chimaev’s especially arduous battle with COVID, and it’s unclear whether Chimaev will ever fight again. (Chimaev’s story is worthy of at least 1,000 words in and of itself – I plan on writing something about it in the coming weeks.) Edwards-Chimaev was supposed to be the main event of this card, but it was well past time for Edwards to get in the cage again, and it’s a great thing that it’s finally happening.
So why should you care about Leon Edwards? Because he’s one of the best welterweights in the world. Edwards is exceptionally well-rounded and technically sound, a clean and smooth boxer on the feet with excellent timing on his left hand (he throws some sick standing elbows as well), strength in the clinch, and ability to take opponents down and control them. He has the ability to solve almost any opponent. He may lack some of the explosive highlights of other top contenders, but watching him fight is watching a true professional at work.
Edwards wins fights with a calm and cerebral approach, ripping his opponents with his jab and crisp combinations straight down the middle, sprinkling in takedowns and clinch control. But his opponent, Belal Muhammad, wins with a little bit of chaos. Muhammad fought almost exactly a month ago, extending his win streak to four with an impressive win over Dhiego Lima. He was the exciting choice to take over Chimaev’s spot in his first main event, and it feels like his momentum is peaking.
Muhammad is the kind of tireless pressure fighter that’s seemingly taking over mixed martial arts. His fight with Lima was a perfect encapsulation of his style: he kept after Lima for three rounds, never slowing down, never allowing Lima a break, drowning him with wave after wave of endless combinations. Even if you manage to tire him out – and Muhammad has, for all his great pace, never done this over five rounds – he’s still going to end up hitting you in the head a fucking lot.
Muhammad doesn’t have a ton of real pop in his punches, but that doesn’t matter if he hits you that many times. Eventually, it will wear you out. Edwards excels so much in his type of clean, technical fight, and I’m looking forward to see how he does against a guy who’s going to make it ugly. Edwards appears like he’s come off his long layoff in incredible shape, but getting tossed back in there after over two years against a fighter like Muhammad will be one steep curve.
Dan Ige vs. Gavin Tucker
When top-10 featherweight Dan Ige was announced for this show a couple months ago, I was jazzed, but not for Ige-related reasons – that’s because he was originally scheduled to face Ryan Hall, the jiu-jitsu wizard who fights only rarely, looks like an accountant, and seemingly rips everyone’s leg off.
Then, of course, Hall pulled out of the fight for undisclosed reasons. He hasn’t fought in nearly two years, and who the hell knows when or if we’ll ever see him again. It was a bummer, if not an unexpected one. But then they replaced Hall with Gavin Tucker, a talented Canadian who’s quickly becoming one of my favorite emerging fighters to watch at 145, and I was back on board.
The 34-year-old from Newfoundland is seemingly improving rapidly every time he steps in the cage. I got completely on board the Tucker train in December, when he outclassed relentless pressure fighter Billy Quarantillo, piecing together every facet of his game in an excellent all-around performance. Tucker answers Quarantillo’s barrage of strikes calmly, powerfully and technically, and was just stronger in every stage of the fight.
Tucker is a jiu-jitsu black belt already known for his submission acumen, but as we’ve seen his striking develop, we’re also seeing his wrestling develop as well – every time you see him out there, there appear to be fewer and fewer holes for his opponents to exploit. He may not have a ton of recognition now, but he’s on the right path. He’ll be an extremely difficult matchup for Ige, who’s coming off a very game performance in an exciting, technical five-round fight with Calvin Kattar last July.
Ige is a clever, tough fighter who seemed to confuse Kattar at times with his tricky movement, good timing, and ability to get off good combinations on the move. But he doesn’t hit with a ton of pop and he can be outmuscled by stronger fighters – with the way Tucker is making strides in the clinch, and his grappling skill, that could end up being his path to victory.
Ige is trying to cement what appears to be a rather tenuous hold on a top 10 spot: he lost a potential platform fight to Kattar, and his preceding win over Edson Barboza was quite controversial (Most media members scored the fight for Barboza, who lost by split decision). Meanwhile, Tucker has his first big chance to vault himself into contention. A lot on the line for two skilled fighters, and I’m looking forward to this one.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape
Alright, Manel Kape. You have one chance. One chance to redeem yourself, or I’m never going to talk about you again.
I’ve devoted a fair bit of space on this blog to Kape, the former RIZIN bantamweight champion who was an exciting capture for the UFC flyweight division. Kape stood out in a very deep group of RIZIN 130-pounders, flashing with his youth, athleticism, power, growing technical ability on the feet, and his innate showmanship. Even before he had debuted in the UFC, I had him front and center on my list of fighters I thought could have breakout 2021s.
Then he got into the ring with Alexandre Pantoja for his debut and… didn’t do anything. The flyweight division is characterized by the fastest pace in fighting, but this was about the lowest-output flyweight fight you’ll ever see. Kape appeared almost shockingly tentative, landing just 51 total strikes in 15 minutes and never opening up to give us a look at the fighter we saw in Japan.
He was acting like he was winning the fight – he looked just as cocky as ever – but Kape’s lack of output, and Pantoja’s takedown defense, was key to the Angolan losing a unanimous decision. I still see stardom in Kape, but he’s got to put his talents on display on Saturday.
But that’s not the only reason I’m into this fight. That’s because I’m really, really happy to see Matheus Nicolau back in the UFC. Nicolau was making a name as an emerging young UFC flyweight a few years ago when he was caught up, like so many others, in the Great Flyweight Purge of 2018. He ended up in Bahrain-based Brave CF, which swiped up quite a few of the really good flyweights that lost their jobs around that time. But some of the other victims of those cuts, such as Brandon Moreno, have been filtering back into the UFC now that the promotion is re-emphasizing 125-pound fighting, and Nicolau is now back in the fold. (Speaking of, can we get Dustin Ortiz back in here too, please? How about John Moraga? Shit, what’s Ali Bagautinov up to?)
Nicolau was a prime candidate to be brought back. Still just 28 years old, Nicolau was 3-1 in the UFC before his untimely release. Nicolau is another skilled, quick, technical fighter who’s good everywhere, moving and picking his shots well on the feet, showcasing skill and strength in the clinch and on the ground (he’s an excellent submission grappler who’s shown a particular affinity for a rare type of choke known as the Japanese necktie), and displaying a cool head and a smart approach. In his last fight, against Brazilian veteran Felipe Efrain in Dec. 2019, he looked as good and complete as ever.
Nicolau has many great years ahead of him, and bringing him back was an excellent move for the UFC. Occupying a solid spot in the top 15 before he was released, Nicolau now has a prime opportunity to remind everyone why he was there in the first place. I don’t expect him to let it go to waste.
Honorable mentions: Misha Cirkunov vs. Ryan Spann, Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart, Nasrat Haqparast vs. Rafa Garcia
The Big Fight 