Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. At long last, the wait is over: Saturday’s UFC 259 promises to be the most loaded UFC pay-per-view show in recent memory, with the light heavyweight, women’s featherweight, and men’s bantamweight world titles all on the line. That’s in addition to a number of other truly excellent fights – really, you could take away the three championship bouts and you’d still be left with one heck of a show.
In this space, I usually talk about the three fights I’m going to be watching closest in a given week. Some weeks that’s more difficult than others. But this week, it’s a layup: three fights to watch, three title fights. Let’s take a look:
Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya
In September, Jan Blachowicz finished one of the most remarkable career turnarounds in mixed martial arts history. Four years ago, Blachowicz became the loser of four of his last five UFC fights, when he dropped a majority decision to the easily forgettable Patrick Cummins. The former KSW champion was spinning his wheels, and appeared one more defeat away from losing his job in the big show.
At that point, the idea that Jan Blachowicz, struggling undercard fighter approaching his late 30s, would succeed the legendary Jon Jones as UFC light heavyweight champion was so unlikely that it was unworthy of mention. And it feels inadequate that, when assessing how Blachowicz turned himself into the world’s top 205-pounder, the adjustment he made was to simply punch harder.
But at the end of the day, that’s kind of what happened. Regarded mainly as a good grappler with some decent pop in the first part of his career, Blachowicz reoriented his entire game around the thump in his fists – and launched himself into the stratosphere. Sometime around two or three years ago, Blachowicz suddenly started knocking out opponent after opponent. And when given his opportunity against top contender Dominick Reyes for the now-vacant world title, Blachowicz bashed the American to smithereens and took the gold.
At the age of 37, Blachowicz had summited a mountain that seemed impossible for him to even sight, and he had done it by transforming himself in a way that was truly remarkable. Seriously, Jan, congratulations. It’s been incredible to watch. Here’s your reward: you get to have your first title defense against arguably the most talented fighter in the entire world.
When Israel Adesanya won the middleweight championship from Robert Whittaker in Sep. 2019, his first title defense was against a 42-year-old Yoel Romero who didn’t appear to be interested at all in actually fighting. Blachowicz will not have that luxury. The Polish powerhouse’s path to victory lays in his fists, but trying to hit Israel Adesanya is like trying to catch an eel in a shotglass.
We saw it on that same September card where Blachowicz won his world title. Facing the undefeated Paulo Costa – a chiseled, savagely powerful Brazilian known for his withering rushes – Adesanya put on a virtuoso performance. Adesanya recalled a peak Anderson Silva with his ability to seemingly sense exactly what Costa was going to do before he did it, and respond in the most devastating fashion possible. Adesanya deftly avoided every one of Costa’s attempts to put him on the defensive, rendered him helpless with a vicious series of calf kicks, and then knocked his ass out in the second round.
Adesanya was a very high-level pro kickboxer before moving to MMA full-time in 2017, and he blends great length – he’ll have a two-inch reach advantage on Blachowicz despite the fact that he was fighting at a weight class 20 pounds lighter – with exceptional movement, vision and power in his fists and his feet. He’s a truly unbelievable striker who has developed terrific takedown defense, and he’s become close to an unsolvable problem at middleweight.
Adesanya’s hardly clear of challengers at 185 – Whittaker has looked tremendous since dropping the belt, and he’s more than worthy of another go at the champ – and Blachowicz has plenty of names on the ledger, none more deserving than the main event backup fighter on Saturday, the seemingly unkillable Glover Teixeira. But the UFC is swinging big by booking this champion vs. champion bout, and presenting us with a fascinating matchup.
I don’t think the fight should be happening, not as Blachowicz’s first title defense anyway. But I’m going to enjoy the shit out of it as it happens. The biggest question, of course, will be: how will Adesanya’s talents play up at 205? Middleweight to light heavyweight is one of the largest weight differences in the sport, and it’s a transition that has rarely been pulled off successfully. Adesanya would be the first to win UFC titles in both divisions – although Dan Henderson pulled the trick in Pride – and of the 15 men to hold the UFC light heavyweight championship, none spent serious time at 185 before fighting at 205.
Adesanya has played into the speculation by making no effort to bulk up at all: he openly talked about weighing as little as 193 pounds on fight night, and ultimately weighed in on Friday around 200, which is one of the lowest numbers for a light heavyweight title challenger ever. Blachowicz, on the other hand, is likely to weigh around 220-225 in the cage. Will Adesanya’s strikes have the same impact they do at 185? And what happens if Jan lands?
Another, very important question: will the weight differential matter one bit? Jan Blachowicz could weigh 270 pounds on Saturday, but it won’t make a difference if he can’t hit Adesanya. The middleweight champion will undoubtedly have the speed advantage, and he’s been, at every turn, one of the most remarkable counter-strikers the sport has ever seen.
Blachowicz has thunderous power, and when he lands, he hurts you bad. Just ask Reyes, who ended up with a fluorescent bruise on his right side from Blachowicz’s body kicks by the end of the first round, before tasting the full brunt of the Legendary Polish Power in the second. But even on his best day, he isn’t the swiftest. He’s not someone who’s going to thrive while having to constantly chase. He needs a dance partner willing to exchange a little in the pocket, and Adesanya has shown he’s not interested in playing his opponent’s game.
The dynamic of this fight seems evident: Jan Blachowicz can beat anyone in the world if he simply hits them. The whole question is whether or not he’ll be able to hit Israel Adesanya. That’s what the main event of UFC 259 will come down to, with a title belt and a considerable amount of legacy on the line. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Amanda Nunes vs. Megan Anderson
At the beginning of the year, I wrote that Israel Adesanya had a strong chance of exiting 2021 with an argument for greatest of all time. That could very well be true, but even so, he’ll have little chance of matching what Amanda Nunes has done over the last seven years. Nunes is indisputably the greatest female mixed martial artist who ever lived, is seemingly more and more untouchable as the years go on, and has shown zero signs of slowing down.
Nunes is a conqueror. During her frightening reign of dominance over the women’s MMA landscape, Nunes destroyed every other fighter who had a claim to the title of female GOAT – the list of her victims is truly unparalleled. Ronda Rousey. Cris Cyborg. Holly Holm. Miesha Tate. Valentina Shevchenko (twice!). Germaine de Randamie. None have been able to stand before her.
Once a fearsome first-round fighter with a suspect gas tank – it’s a funny note that easily the most dominant female fighter of all time has losses to Sarah D’Alelio and Alexis Davis – Nunes rounded into form as one of the most complete and powerful fighters in MMA history, regardless of gender or weight class. If you trade blows with her, she knocks your ass out. And if you can hang on the feet – think her fight with de Randamie, a world-class Muay Thai artist – she’ll simply take you down and dominate, and probably tap you out.
Along the way, Nunes has become a two-division champion and is en route to permanently shutting down the women’s featherweight division: 145, once Cris Cyborg’s domain, now essentially exists to house Nunes and whoever feels froggy enough to take a crack at her. Rumors that the weight class could be shut down have swirled for a while, and this week, Nunes herself said she wouldn’t be opposed.
That means that it’s completely conceivable that Nunes’ fight with Megan Anderson could be the last women’s featherweight bout that we see under the UFC banner. The division was essentially created for Cyborg, and once Nunes destroyed her in just 51 seconds in Dec. 2018, its purpose was complete. There isn’t much more competition for Nunes at 135, mind you, but at least there are regular fights at that weight.
We haven’t seen Nunes significantly challenged since her close bout with Shevchenko in Sep. 2017. Last June, she was almost comically dominant in a unanimous decision win over the hopelessly outmatched Felicia Spencer. So what makes Megan Anderson different? Well, for one thing, she’s pretty dang big: the 31-year-old Australian cuts an imposing figure in the Octagon at six feet tall and a 72 inch reach, and she’ll be significantly larger than the defending champion in the cage.
Being tall doesn’t necessarily translate to success in the cage – otherwise, Semmy Schilt would have won a world title – but Anderson’s frame gives you at least some confidence that she won’t be physically overpowered like so many of Nunes’ opponents. Everything else is a question mark. Anderson has flashed significant knockout power throughout her pro career, but her record is lacking: she’s gone 3-2 in her UFC run with losses to Spencer and Holm, and her only win over a real name, against Cat Zingano in Dec. 2018, came on a strange fluke TKO when Anderson’s toenail grazed Zingano’s eye on an attempted head kick.
Anderson has some really nice tools, but Nunes has been so dominant, for so long, at two different weight classes, that we’re plumbing the depths for challengers. She’ll likely be another footnote in an unparalleled legacy. But goddammit, you never know in this sport. But one of two things are going to happen: either Nunes is going to eventually get bored and retire, or someone is going to shock the fucking world. And why couldn’t it be Anderson, with her size and power? Let’s roll the dice.
Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling
Petr Yan-Aljamain Sterling may be third on the billing, but I think I’m looking forward to that fight more than any other on Saturday night. Out of the three title fights that we’ll be blessed with at UFC 259, Yan-Sterling is alone in that it features a champion facing his clear-cut top challenger, both in their prime, in what is unquestionably the fight to make in their division.
Blachowicz-Adesanya is a cool fight, but it shouldn’t be happening right now. Nunes-Anderson will be another nice showcase for the GOAT, but it’s in a dying division with little true competition. But in the shark tank that is the UFC bantamweight division, it’s inarguable that Aljamain Sterling has earned his shot. One of the most entertaining and unique grapplers in mixed martial arts, Sterling will provide the new champion Yan with one of the tests of his life.
Over the last several months, Cory Sandhagen has emerged as a major breakout star of the 135-pound division, scoring back-to-back highlight reel KOs of Marlon Moraes and Frankie Edgar. But when Sandhagen stepped into the ring with Sterling last June, the “Funkmaster” rendered him completely helpless, tying him up immediately and tapping him out with a rear naked choke in 88 seconds. It was a win that looked great at the time, and even better now.
That fight was a perfect encapsulation of why Sterling is such a difficult problem to solve. A two-time Division III All-American wrestler with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Sterling knows what he’s good at, employing an aggressive and inventive submission grappling game at every opportunity – his Suloev Stretch kneebar of Cody Stamann in Sep. 2018 stands out as one of the remarkable submissions in MMA history.
Absolutely nothing Sterling does looks typical, and over the course of a five-fight win streak he’s fully consolidated his status as the No. 1 bantamweight contender in the world. And, it should be noted: Petr Yan’s only career loss came in a grapple-heavy decision against another brilliant ground fighter, Magomed Magomedov, in 2016.
Of course, that was five years ago, and Yan has been on a warpath ever since. The 28-year-old Siberian savage is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC, having appeared from the moment of his arrival as a future champion. He paid off all those predictions in July, when he knocked out the legendary Jose Aldo in the fifth round to join Khabib Nurmagomedov as the second Russian champion in UFC history.
Aldo is perhaps the single best Muay Thai striker in the history of MMA and has a convincing GOAT argument in his own right, and through the first few rounds, his impeccable technical skill and legendary leg kicks were giving the younger Yan a real challenge. But as he’s done in almost every fight of his career, Yan blasted through every obstacle. Yan has leaden fists and an attacking mentality, and eventually he simply overwhelmed Aldo. The stoppage in the fifth round came after an unnecessarily protracted beating.
Yan is a pitbull on the feet who has outworked every fighter he’s faced in the UFC, mixing unstoppable volume with some of the most withering punching power in the division’s history. By many metrics, he’s already the single best bantamweight striker to ever step into the Octagon. Sterling showed an improving, if unorthodox, striking game in wins over Pedro Munhoz and Jimmie Rivera, but he’s not going to win standing up with Petr Yan.
But here’s the issue for him: since the first Magomedov fight – a loss which Yan avenged a year later – Yan has also displayed excellent takedown defense, and has stopped 88 percent of takedown attempts against him in his seven UFC appearances. Of course, none of those came against a grappler like Aljamain Sterling. And Sterling’s claim that Yan has faced “a bunch of old men” has at least a little merit: Yan’s two biggest wins came over faded versions of Aldo and Urijah Faber, and Rivera was closer than you think to claiming a decision over Yan in June 2019.
It’s clear that the UFC seized on Yan quickly as a future champion and pushed him fast and hard. For his part, he delivered. Now, he’ll have to prove that he can continue to get it done against a true top contender at his peak, something he hasn’t faced so far in his UFC career. That’s worth tuning in for.
Honorable mentions: Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakic, Dominick Cruz vs. Casey Kenney, Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober, Joseph Benavidez vs. Askar Askarov, Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips, Kai Kara-France vs. Rogerio Bontorin, Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews
The Big Fight 