By Jake Long – Senior Gambling Correspondent

A lot of things in life give me joy: the sun shining, birds singing, babies smiling, UFC PPV cards with multiple title fights, etc.

So I’m pretty excited for UFC 259. On Saturday, March 6 we are getting the biggest UFC show since UFC 200 was cut to pieces for various reasons. We have five belts, four champs, and three title defenses on this show: Israel Adesanya (middleweight champion) vs. Jan Blachowicz (light heavyweight champion), Amanda Nunes (women’s featherweight and bantamweight champion) vs. Megan Anderson, and Petr Yan (men’s bantamweight champion) vs. Aljamain Sterling. If COVID-19 stays away from this card, I think there is potential for UFC 259 to end up on many top 10 cards of all time lists.

If you’ve been riding with me from the start, you know last month was a let-down – sometimes you throw haymakers and end up in a rear-naked choke. But we live life without a rear-view mirror here at The Big Fight and it’s time to get that money back! I will make picks for each of the title fights on this card and provide always right/never wrong analysis. Tail at your own risk. Carpe Forte!

(All statistics courtesy of Sherdog and all odds courtesy of FanDuel)

Main Card

Petr Yan (-120) vs Aljamain Sterling (+102)

The Picks: Sterling by Sub or Points (+120)

This fight has legitimate fight of the night potential. Two guys in their prime with different styles, both on a run of badass bouts with top guys, the title on the line… sign me up. First, I don’t think Sterling is going to want to trade punches with Yan.

He is a solid striker, but if he tries to match blows with “No Mercy,” he is going to pay for it. I think he tries to use his takedown ability here and wear Yan out on the ground. Second, I think this fight goes the distance because neither guy wants to go down early. Yan is in his first title defense, and Sterling has had to work for years to get this point so the first round will be a feeling out process before going to the ground like I’ve already said.

If the fight goes all the way, I think Sterling will have controlled enough on the ground to get a decision, maybe 48-47. (Editor’s note: it should be remembered that Yan’s one career loss came by a close, grapple-heavy decision against Magomed Magomedov.) I don’t think Yan is capable of being knocked out, but Sterling can find a way get him trapped on the ground, especially if he wears down during the fight. Either way, at +120 odds, you shouldn’t say no.

Amanda Nunes (-1100) vs Megan Anderson (+700)

The Picks: Total rounds over 1.5 (-112) and Nunes by KO (+100)

Clearly oddsmakers are not looking favorably on Megan Anderson, but who can blame them? Picking against Amanda Nunes in 2021 is like picking against Hulk Hogan in the late 80s: you’re going to be disappointed. She has looked absolutely untouchable since her split decision win versus Valentina Shevchenko in 2017.

So let’s look at where the value is: total rounds and a KO victory. Both Nunes and Anderson have finished a lot of fights in the first round, but Nunes in particular has looked more patient in her last few fights – against Germaine de Randamie and Felicia Spencer, she went the distance.

It might not inspire much confidence to look at Anderson’s last four fights and see that they ended in R1, but I think Nunes lost the ability to get knocked out after the Cat Zingano fight. “Lioness” has demonstrated a lot of power lately so I think Nunes eventually wears down Anderson and gets in close for the knockout in the end of Round 2 or 3. This would be the first knockout loss for Megan Anderson, but until now, she hasn’t fought a real knockout artist. Now is the time!

Israel Adesanya (-225) vs Jan Blachowicz (+188)

The Pick: Adesanya by KO (+135)

I think it’s telling that in his first fight at light heavyweight, Israel Adesanya is a –225 favorite versus a talented Jan Blachowicz. Normally in these articles, this is where I tell you to bet on the underdog who is so good and should never be plus odds… but come on, he’s fighting “The Last Stylebender.”

I love using L5 fights to identify trends in betting, but this one is just coming from my gut. He destroyed Paulo Costa in two rounds back in September with leg kicks and viscous punches, he stared at Yoel Romero for five rounds in March, rocked Bobby Knuckles with punches in October 2019, and went five brutal rounds with Kelvin Gastelum in April 2019. Blachowicz is no slouch, but his wins just haven’t been as convincing. He had a solid title fight versus Dominick Reyes, but his split decision against Souza has me concerned for his ability to go against one of the most agile fighters I’ve ever seen.

I’m sure some people can throw more statistics at you for this fight, and maybe they will say Blachowicz is being undervalued. I look at this and say that Thiago Santos proved Jan can be knocked out, and Izzy proved he can knock anyone out against Costa. The “Stylebender” is on his way to being one of the greatest fighters of this generation, and I think he becomes the first person to hold the middleweight and light heavyweight titles at the same time at UFC 259.