By Jacob Long, Senior Gambling Correspondent

On Saturday, Feb. 18, Dana White’s Traveling Knockout and Submission Emporium brings us UFC 258. Following the hype of Conor McGregor’s most recent return, Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns have the difficult task of putting on a show in the main event for the welterweight title – but the women’s flyweight and men’s middleweight divisions have some interesting fights on the card as well. Maycee Barber is making her return from injury while Kelvin Gastelum and Ian Heinisch try to get into contention for the middleweight belt.

From a betting perspective, this card is strange: I think there are some fighters who have the wrong sign next to their odds. My strategy for this card is to take the Francis Ngannou approach and throw a couple haymakers (aka take some DAWGS) in hopes that two of them hit. I hope you made some money on the Super Bowl, because it’s time to bet it on some scraps! Carpe Forte!

(All statistics from Sherdog and all odds from FanDuel unless otherwise noted)

Main Card

Kevin Gastelum (-245) vs. Ian Heinisch (+194)

The pick: Heinisch (+194)

Neither of these guys have been lighting the world on fire with their recent performances. Heinisch is the only one with a win in his last three fights coming against Gerald Meerschaert in June of last year – before that win, he had lost to Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov in 2019. Gastelum has lost to Jack Hermansson, Darren Till, and Israel Adesanya in the last two years.

So who gets back on their feet? I think it ends up being Heinisch. Going even further back to their 2017-18 reveals that Gastelum wasn’t exactly winning fights convincingly when had the chance. The split decision against Ronaldo Sousza was debatable, but at no point was anyone arguing Gastelum easily had it. “Hurricane” on the other hand has that win vs Meerschaert and two other convincing decision wins in UFC.

I think he shows out and proves he is the better fighter, rising the ranks closer to the top 10 of the division. If you want some extra juice, Heinisch by Decision can be enticing.

Alexa Grasso (-132) vs. Maycee Barber (+108)

The pick: Barber by KO (+500)

This fight has potential to steal the show on Saturday. Maycee Barber is returning from a knee injury she sustained last year fighting Roxanne Modafferi – a fight that saw Barber getting beat to hell for two rounds before the knee became too much to handle in R3. That loss might look bad, but Grasso has not really been a dominant force since she came to UFC. Grasso is 4-3 since debuting in the promotion, most recently beating Ji Yeon Kim last year. Both women are going to enter the octagon with something to prove.

I am really high on Maycee Barber as a future champion, and I think she starts her rise anew with this fight. Her fights in LFA were never competitive and who knows what happens if she doesn’t injure her knee in her last fight. She and Grasso are both strike-heavy, so I think they will stand and trade for most of the fight. Barber has won three of her last four fights via TKO, and although Grasso has never been knocked out in the pros, that streak comes to an end here.

Kamaru Usman (-290) vs Gilbert Burns (+225)

The pick: Burns by decision (+800)

Can I really get away with picking big underdogs in the main event for two PPVs in a row? We will find out, but I have a solid reasoning for this pick outside of the whole “Burns is really good and +225”. “The Nigerian Nightmare” is otherworldly, and even though his fight with Jorge Masvidal went the distance, it was never in doubt. Same with “Durinho” against Tyron Woodley: a fight that goes the distance but was clearly going to Burns from the first round.

These guys are teammates with Sanford MMA and I think that will breed a lot of familiarity between them. The early rounds will be a feeling out process as they both assess what the other is going to move with. There will be a lot of striking early, and I think Burns will catch him with some solid shots before the late rounds crank up with action. When they hit those late rounds, I don’t think it will be enough to get a finish though. This fight will go to the judges with Burns doing his damage early before protecting his lead late.

Also, Gilbert Burns is really good, and FanDuel is giving great odds. I’m a mark!