UFC Best Bets: UFC 257

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By Jacob Long – Senior Gambling Correspondent

From my subjective Conor McGregor mark point of view, Conor McGregor should dominate Dustin Poirier in the UFC 257 main event.

From a completely objective point of view, Dustin Poirier could very well beat Conor McGregor in the UFC 257 main event.

But even outside of the main event, this Jan. 24, 2021 card offers some interesting matchups between a lot of MMA veterans that did not necessarily cut their chops in the UFC. I think most of these fights are going to be chess matches between fighters who are experts at what they do, so my picks will be about who can execute their gambits and match their opponent check for check (those are the only chess terms I know).

As always, I will provide my best bets for a few undercard bouts before making picks on all the main card fights! If you bet exactly how I did for the past four UFC PPVs, you would be up eight units – which means it is probably time to fade my bets. Carpe Forte!

(All statistics via Sherdog and all odds via FanDuel unless otherwise noted)

NOTE: This column does not include Matt Frevola–Arman Tsaruykan due to the last-minute change.

Undercard:

Brad Tavares (-144) vs. Antônio Carlos Júnior (+118)

The pick:  Brad Tavares via Decision (+160)

This fight has a lot of intrigue to me because both guys are coming off back-to-back losses. From an NCAA Basketball perspective, Carlos Júnior has the worse recent loss with a split decision vs. Uriah Hall. Tavares has lost to current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and top prospect Edmen Shahbazyan but at this point, I think Adesanya could beat Superman.

Everyone loves a good comeback story, but what happens when both guys need the win to continue that story? I think this leads to a bout where both guys start out carefully before coming alive in R2 or R3 – however, I am not sure if it leads to a finish. Carlos Júnior wins fights with submissions, but it’s not like he or Tavares are experts at takedowns. “Cara De Sapato’s” rear naked choke is a great X-factor that he can get into from a variety of positions, but I think they will stand and trade punches for a majority of this one. Tavares will keep himself out of the reach of those subs and get a win via decision with his striking ability.

Julianna Peña (+110) vs. Sara McMann (-134)

The picks: Sara McMann by decision (+170)

I’m sure I will end up eating my words, but there is no way this fight finishes inside the distance. Neither of these women would be described as finish machines, even if they both have a few KO/submission wins. That makes it an easy call for me to say it goes the distance, but who wins after three rounds?

Comparing their recent bouts does not inspire much confidence in either fighter, but I always place more on a fighter that took a few years between fights then comes back to win – just like McMann did vs. Lina Lansberg. Peña’s recent fight with Germaine de Randamie confirmed that she is a step behind where she was in 2017 when she had the chance to be a No. 1 contender for the Bantamweight belt. I think McMann uses her veteran savvy to batter the “Venezuelan Vixen” for three rounds and get herself back into the upper rankings of the 135 class.

Main Card

Amanda Ribas (-355) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+270)

The picks: Amanda Ribas by finish (+185)

I think this fight is interesting for mostly one reason: Will we see Ribas move up in the pound-for-pound rankings by beating a worthy fighter in Marina Rodriguez? I think the answer will be a resounding yes. Ribas has more grappling ability and her striking could surprise Rodriguez if she prepared too much for the ground game on short notice. The favorite did get busted open vs. Paige VanZant, but the fight was hers to lose as soon as it hit the ground. I think Ribas finishes this one inside the distance.

Jessica Eye (-104) vs Joanne Calderwood (-112)

The picks: Eye by decision (.5u at +170) and Calderwood by decision (.5u at +125)

Another interesting fight buoyed by the results of both fighter’s last scrap; Eye lost a decision to Cynthia Calvillo at UFC on ESPN 10 and Calderwood tapped out to Jennifer Maia at UFC Fight Night 173. Looking at the odds, you can tell there is not clear favorite in this match, so I leaned into that idea with my bet. I don’t see any way these two get a finish off in three rounds – Eye has gone the distance in nine of her last 10 fights and Calderwood has done the same in six of her last 10. I do not think either one wants to take another loss at this point, and that leads to a more timid opening round before building on it. If FanDuel wants to give us plus odds for either one to win by decision after three rounds, we are dumb not to take it.

Dan Hooker (-136) vs. Michael Chandler (+116)

The pick: Michael Chandler (2u at +116)

Some people will tune in to this card just to watch the McGregor vs. Poirier fight, but I really hope that more casual fans pay attention to this fight too. Michael Chandler is a goddamn joy to watch in the cage. Go watch his first title fight with Eddie Alvarez in Bellator if you need to see it. He has a level of in-ring charisma that may not rival McGregor but is still incredibly high. Watch him eat punches before throwing even harder back and then wrestling his opponent to the ground and getting whatever he wants.

This is not to say Hooker could not show up and return to his 2017-18 form where he was finishing fights in just a round or two. But watching his fight against Poirier showed he is currently a step below the top dogs in UFC, including the brand-new Chandler. I am not confident enough in any method of victory for “Iron” because you can tell he molds his method around the direction of the fight. That fight against Alvarez was a stand-up brawl for most of R4 before he went to the ground and choked him out; Then just a few years ago, he beat Brandon Girtz with an arm triangle choke. His recent wins were by KO, so I’m not betting that just to watch him on points. Take the plus odds on the Bellator veteran and be happy with it!                                                                                                    

Conor McGregor (-325) vs Dustin Poirier (+250)

The picks: Conor McGregor in R1 (+170) and Dustin Poirier (+250)

Conor McGregor is one of my favorite fighters of all time, but Dustin Poirier has such good odds here that I cannot help but put money on him. It is very rare to see a fighter of Poirier’s caliber get such low odds; If he were fighting anyone else, he would be the odds-on favorite. Just look at his last 5 fights:

Get rid of that loss to Khabib (who has beaten literally everyone, including Conor) and you have a guy whose only loss since his last fight with Conor came via a beautiful counter in round one from Michael Johnson. His fights versus Hooker and Holloway are the perfect examples of what Poirier can do to guys who are on top of their game.

As for “Notorious,” I am not in the camp of “Conor’s cardio is going to suck” because the guy is a professional and he takes all of these fights seriously – but even then, I think that Conor’s best shot is to take the fight right to “The Diamond” from the start and try to end him early. The longer this fight goes, the better odds I give Poirier who has shown the ability to win fights in multiple ways. I can see a scenario where Poirier reaches into his bag of tricks from circa 2013 and tries to attack Conor’s weakness for ending up in submissions as he wears down a little.

If you are hesitant to bet on Poirier, I can understand because betting against McGregor has never been a very profitable venture. But just remember that betting is about more than just picking the correct person to win – it is also about finding value in guys who have incorrect numbers next to them. There is no way Conor should be –300 favorite in a fight against someone who is consistently winning against top guys. This should be an absolute bloodbath.

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