Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. Except, I’m writing this on Tuesday! The UFC is back with a double-shot from Fight Island this week, starting with an ESPN+ card on Wednesday followed by the UFC’s first pay-per-view of the year, UFC 257 on Saturday night. It should be a big week for fights, for several reasons.
And as usual, I’m previewing it. Here’s a look at the three fights I’m going to be watching most closely over the next few days:
Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier II
Conor McGregor has fought twice in the last 51 months. Since Oct. 2018, he’s been in the Octagon for a total of 40 seconds. He’s retired, unretired, gotten arrested, and starred in more shitty whiskey commercials than you can count. It says a lot about who Conor McGregor is that after all this, he’s still easily the biggest star in mixed martial arts.
It’s quite possible that the UFC never hits on a star quite like McGregor ever again. McGregor wasn’t a monstrous former WWE champion like Brock Lesnar, or a completely new archetype like Ronda Rousey. McGregor was just a hard-hitting little guy from Ireland with a natural gift for shit-talk and self-promotion who turned himself into the biggest pay-per-view draw in the world.
In 2016, McGregor’s fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov sold more pay-per-views than any MMA event in history, a record that is highly unlikely to be broken for many years, if ever. His 2017 boxing match with Floyd Mayweather Jr. was the second-most-bought bout in that sport’s history. He’s been a UFC champion at featherweight and lightweight, and made millions of dollars for a few fights at welterweight as well. In 2021, what’s left for Conor McGregor to even do?
A motivated McGregor is one of the most exhilarating fighters in the history of the sport. His two-year rise to the UFC featherweight title, in which he turned himself into a household name through pure force of charisma and punching power, was a rare experience. Along the way, he beat fighters like a young Max Holloway and the forever underappreciated Chad Mendes, and ended the historic title reign of Jose Aldo with one punch, in just 13 seconds.
McGregor is one of the most gifted strikers to ever grace the sport, combining dynamite fists with clean technique and almost unmatched speed. When he lands, especially with that left hand, it just seems like he hits different than anyone else. A prime McGregor is a firebreathing knockout force that is almost impossible to withstand. That storied left has claimed the souls of fighters like Aldo, Eddie Alvarez, and the man he fights on Saturday, the great Dustin Poirier, in 2014.
The meeting between McGregor and Poirier was relatively early in McGregor’s rise – just his fourth UFC appearance – but still ranks as one of his most memorable performances. Although he had gutted out a win over Holloway in his second UFC fight, Holloway was just 21 years old, was coming off a loss to Dennis Bermudez, and was far from evolving into the killer he is today. The first fight with Poirier, in which McGregor toyed with one of the top featherweights in the world before knocking him out with the left in less than two minutes, proved that McGregor was a legit threat to the best of the best.
Since then, both fighters’ careers have only gone up, but at different speeds. McGregor was world champion over a year later, a double champ a year after that. 2016 – just two years after the Poirier fight – was the last year he actually fought regularly. He’s only been in the cage for the loss to Khabib that elevated the Russian’s mystique, and a welterweight tilt with a faded Donald Cerrone last year where McGregor looked exceptionally dangerous.
On the other hand, Poirier has been one of the steady workhorses of the UFC for the last six years. Poirier moved up to lightweight after the McGregor loss and has since gone 10-2 against some of the best competition in the world, beating fighters like Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Dan Hooker, Anthony Pettis, and outlasting Holloway to win an interim UFC title in 2019.
The fight with Hooker was a Fight of the Year contender for 2020, a five-round war between two great strikers who went toe-to-toe for 25 minutes.
The Hooker fight was a perfect encapsulation of the fighter Poirier is. Poirier has been in memorable war after memorable war throughout his UFC career. He’s at his best on the inside, taking a few shots and giving them back, relying on his uncommon toughness, durability and power to carry the day. He wants this fight to be bloody and exhausting. He’s said as much. But as we’ve seen over and over again, Conor McGregor is a very dangerous man to play that game with.
McGregor has been, historically, on another level of technique, speed and pure thump that Poirier has never reached. He’s just a special talent, that’s all. But what can we expect from McGregor today? He hasn’t fought at 155 since 2018, and hasn’t won there since 2016. How will that layoff change him? Can he possibly have the same motivation and focus that he had when he was younger, especially considering he’s a multi-millionaire who’s already conquered the world twice over? If he wins, can he even be counted on to stay around?
Meanwhile, Dustin Poirier has been in the weeds, fighting and winning battles against the best in the world for the entire time Conor’s been gone. They’re the same age – just 32 – but although he’s been off since the fight with Hooker last June, he’s got way more miles on his body than Conor. At what point does that catch up with him, especially with one of the most feared punchers in UFC history staring him down? Khabib weathered Conor’s power, dragged him to the deep waters and drowned him there. This time around, Poirier will have to do the same. Is it possible for someone who fights like he does to do that?
So, so many questions. The best fights promise to answer a lot of questions. And just by the virtue of Conor McGregor being in the building, this will be one of the biggest fights of the year. Like almost everyone, I’m sure you’ll be watching.
Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandler
McGregor-Poirier isn’t the only great lightweight fight on UFC 257. Last weekend, UFC president Dana White met with champion Khabib Nurmagomedov one-on-one to discuss his future, and the veracity of Khabib’s retirement – White has made no secret of his desperation to get Khabib back in the cage. On Saturday, White alleged that Khabib told him that if he saw something special from the big lightweight contests at UFC 257, he might be inspired to return.
To me, that shined a light squarely on the co-main between Michael Chandler and Dan Hooker. Khabib has already dominated and humiliated both McGregor and Poirier – a rematch between Khabib and McGregor would do humongous business, but Khabib has steadfastly insisted that he has absolutely no interest in that fight. But if Chandler or Hooker, neither of whom have ever shared an Octagon with the greatest lightweight of all time, can produce some moment of magic, who can say?
Yeah, I think it’s all bullshit too. But if either of these guys can produce some enormous, ground-shifting highlight, it’s probably Chandler. The three-time former Bellator lightweight champion is at last making his UFC debut after a decade as the face of Bellator, a run where he turned himself into arguably the world’s top 155-pound fighter outside the UFC.
Ever since Chandler beat Eddie Alvarez in an absolute classic to win the Bellator title in 2011, people have been speculating how he’d fare in the world’s largest MMA organization. There are a lot of points for and against. Chandler has always been a terrific, powerful athlete who fights aggressively and at a fast pace – the combination of his natural burst and punching power has been enough to overwhelm many opponents, such as former UFC champ Benson Henderson last August.
Chandler has always seemed to be a different level of physical specimen than most fighters. But at 34, he’s passing his athletic prime, and his isn’t a style I think will age well. There are also some dodgy spots on his record: two 2014 losses to Will Brooks, who went on shortly afterward to an unsuccessful UFC run, along with a 61-second KO loss to Patricio “Pitbull” Freire, moving up from featherweight, in 2019.
Outside of his win over Alvarez – which the future UFC champion avenged before moving on from Bellator – you’d be hard-pressed to find on Chandler’s record a win over a real top-rated fighter around their prime. In 30-year-old New Zealander Dan Hooker, he’ll get a chance to really prove himself on Saturday.
Make no mistake: Chandler’s being thrown into the fire. One of the gems of Auckland’s City Kickboxing, Hooker has emerged as one of the top lightweights in the world since moving back up to 155 in 2017, winning seven of his last nine. Hooker was last seen giving Poirier absolutely everything he could handle in that great June fight – he’s a terrific technical striker who has a delightful penchant for knocking people out with knees.
Hooker can be an absolute killer when he establishes his range, working his opponents over with brilliant combinations that attack the body and the head at equal measures. And as he put on display in the Poirier fight, he has a superb chin and excellent cardio, two things you can’t always say about Chandler. Chandler has a ton of tools, but when predicting this fight, the balance of the evidence would tilt towards Hooker’s durability and superior technical skill.
Or Chandler could prove that the hype was real, all along. And if he storms in there and puts out Hooker quick? Man, wouldn’t things get interesting.
The UFC’s Wednesday card is a relatively weak one, but hell, it’s midweek MMA, and we’re gonna watch it. Originally supposed to be headlined by Leon Edwards and Khamzat Chimaev, Chimaev’s bout with COVID-19 elevated Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny to the main event, in a battle of fringe contenders in the welterweight division.
Expect some bump and grind. Chiesa and Magny are hardly huge action stars, but have tailored their skillsets well and turned themselves into top-10 fighters. This will be Chiesa’s first fight in about a year – the former Ultimate Fighter winner is coming in off a three-fight win streak that has turned him into an interesting prospect at 170.
An aggressive grappler with a strong submission acumen – he takes you down and taps you out, simple as that – Chiesa was always huge for the lightweight division, had trouble making weight, and struggled against higher-caliber 155-pounders. He’s looked more comfortable since moving up to welterweight in 2018, but hasn’t been tested at an incredibly high level: his three wins are over faded versions of Carlos Condit and Diego Sanchez, as well as Rafael dos Anjos, who was always a bit too small for 170.
Magny should be Chiesa’s gatekeeper to the real big fights at 170. Magny’s fights are rarely exciting, but he’s won much more than he’s lost in his long UFC career, although he’s never been able to enter the ranks of the top contenders. Magny’s 80-inch reach would be really long at light heavyweight, let alone welterweight, and he’s grinded out unanimous decision after unanimous decision by controlling the range in the striking game and outmuscling opponents against the cage.
Nothing really pretty, but a damn effective fighter at what he does. And while I don’t expect it to be the most exciting fight in the world, it could have some interesting consequences at 170, especially if Chiesa wins. At least we’ll get one really relevant fight on Wednesday.
Honorable mentions: Tyson Nam vs. Matt Schnell, Lerone Murphy vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade, Omari Akhmedov vs. Tom Breese, UFC Fight Island 8; Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood, Ottman Azaitar vs. Matt Frevola, Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas, Arman Tsarukyan vs. Nasrat Haqparast, Sara McMann vs. Julianna Pena, UFC 257; Shinya Aoki vs. James Nakashima, ONE: Unbreakable
The Big Fight 