The UFC Road Map: Jan-Feb. 2021

Right around now, UFC fans are enjoying a well-deserved break from the world’s biggest MMA organization. After cards of varying quality every week for months, the UFC ran its last show of 2020 on Dec. 19, and won’t pick back up until Jan. 16.

But it’s never too early to start getting excited for more controlled violence. And the first couple months of 2021 contain some bangers in the Octagon. I’ve laid out a road map of the biggest fights to prepare yourself for over the next couple months – hopefully, with COVID still raging, most of these actually happen.

UFC Fight Island 7: Jan. 16

Calvin Kattar vs. Max Holloway; Alessio Di Chirico vs. Joaquin Buckley; Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Li Jingliang; Omari Akhmedov vs. Tom Breese

Almost 10 years ago, the UFC made a groundbreaking step with its debut on FOX, its first-ever card on a major network TV channel. In accordance with the moment, they put their best foot forward: the show was headlined by a UFC heavyweight title clash between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos, and buoyed by a stacked undercard that featured names like Benson Henderson, Dustin Poirier and Cub Swanson. On Jan. 16, the UFC will get a similar moment with its first live show on ABC. On a Saturday afternoon opposite the NFL playoffs, they aren’t sending near as much star power.

Still, we’ve got a great main event, and a few interesting returns on the undercard. Calvin Kattar-Max Holloway should be a magnificent technical striking battle between two of the world’s best featherweights, one that should have significant title implications. Kattar could set himself up for a shot at champion Alexander Volkanovski with a win, while Holloway is trying to bolster his argument for a third chance at the Australian titleholder. The former champ’s last two fights have been decision losses to Volkanovski, but the second fight, last July, was a very, very tight split decision that many thought Holloway deserved.

Joaquin Buckley, one fight removed from the spinning KO of Impa Kasanganay that made him a viral star, looks like he has the potential to be company headliner. He’ll be a heavy favorite against 31-year-old Italian Di Chirico, who’s lost his last three. We’ll have the very welcome return of Argentine welterweight Santiago Ponzinibbio, who was on a seven-fight win streak and looking like a potential major contender at 170 when health issues struck that kept him out for two years. He’s now 34 and hasn’t fought since Nov. 2018, so the time is now to re-assert his position. We’ll also get a look at Akhmedov, a powerful Russian grappler who has looked at times like an interesting fringe contender at middleweight, but has to rebound from a grueling loss to Chris Weidman in August.

UFC Fight Island 8: Jan. 20

Michael Chiesa vs. Neil Magny; Matt Schnell vs. Tyson Nam

This was originally supposed to be headlined by an exciting bout between the Khamzat Chimaev hype train and the man who should give him his first real test in the Octagon, top-five welterweight Leon Edwards. But due to continuing COVID issues – both guys have battled the coronavirus over the last couple months – the fight has been rescheduled for the second time, robbing us of one of the most fascinating fights of the next couple months.

What’s left isn’t nearly as interesting. Michael Chiesa will main event in his first fight in almost exactly a calendar year – he’s been hanging around the top 10 at welterweight for years, but has so far capped out a tier below true title contender. His fight with Neil Magny promises to be an ugly grappling match, like most Magny fights. I’m intrigued by the undercard flyweight fight between Matt Schnell and Tyson Nam. Schnell is one of the young talents trying to break out of a deep-looking pack at 125, while Nam is a heavy-handed veteran who might finally be putting together the big UFC run he’s been working almost 15 years for.

UFC 257: Jan. 23

Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 2; Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandler; Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood; Julianna Pena vs. Sara McMann; Amanda Ribas vs. Marina Rodriguez; Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar; Shane Burgos vs. Hakeem Dawodu; Nasrat Haqparast vs. Arman Tsarukyan

The UFC knows that UFC 257 is going to be its biggest-money event of the first half of 2021, and as such, it’s the most loaded show they have. Even after all these years and so many fake retirements, Conor McGregor still sells pay-per-views, after all. One of the biggest draws in the UFC’s history, McGregor has fought just twice in four years, but looked in vintage form last January against Donald Cerrone. He knocked out Poirier in less than two minutes in 2014, and since then, Poirier has cemented his status as one of the world’s elite lightweights. Most have expected the winner of this rematch to end up with the lightweight title vacated by Khabib Nurmagomedov, but no indication has been made that will be the case – Dana White still seems convinced that Khabib is going to come back, just you wait.

In the co-main, Michael Chandler is finally putting to rest all the speculation about who his UFC debut opponent is going to be. The three-time Bellator lightweight champ is being thrown into the deep end against one of the best in the world, Dan Hooker, who had a fantastic scrap with Poirier last June. People have been fantasy-booking Chandler in the UFC for nearly a decade, and now we’ll finally see if he can live up to the billing.

UFC 257 is heavy on strong female fighters angling for title shots – Jessica Eye, Joanne Calderwood, Amanda Ribas, Marina Rodriguez, Julianna Pena and Marina Rodriguez are all in the top 15 of their respective divisions – and has some showcases of talented prospects. I’m especially excited to see head-rattling Moroccan lightweight Ottman Azaitar and the lightning-quick Nasrat Haqpalast.

UFC Fight Night 184: Feb. 6

Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov; Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar; Alexandre Pantoja vs. Manel Kape; Beneil Dariush vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira; Nicco Montano vs. Karol Rosa

Feb. 6’s card is as loaded an ESPN+ card as maybe we’ve ever had. 40-year-old heavyweight legend Alistair Overeem has looked like a different man over the last couple years, during his one final run at the UFC title that’s eluded him over a 20-plus year career. He can prove that it’s all for real with a win over Volkov, a towering Russian kickboxer with title designs of his own. We’ve also got a fight with tremendous bantamweight title implications. Cory Sandhagen put himself right in line for a shot at the belt with his wheel kick KO of Marlon Moraes, but he’s putting it all on the line against the beloved former lightweight champion Edgar, who’s making the last big run of his career at 39 years old. You’d expect the winner of this fight to fight the winner of Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling, whenever that happens, for the belt.

In the lightweight division, Beneil Dariush, one of the most exciting sleeper contenders in the weight class, is looking to elevate himself to another level against No. 9 ranked Carlos Diego Ferreira, an elite jiu-jitsu competitor whose only two career losses are to Poirier and… Beneil Dariush, by decision back in 2014. Ferreira has won six straight since the loss to Poirier, while Dariush has finished his last four foes. We’ll also get the debut of former RIZIN champion Manel Kape, an excellent striker jumping into the UFC flyweight division against Alexandre Pantoja, one of the world’s best 125-pounders.

We’ve also got a former world champion buried deep on the undercard. You’d be forgiven if you forgot Nicco Montano existed: the winner of the Ultimate Fighter season that crowned the inaugural UFC women’s flyweight champion in 2017, Montano has fought just once since due to issues making weight, injuries and a drug suspension. She’s finally back, and her fight with 26-year-old Brazilian Karol Rosa will determine whether we should give a shit.

UFC 258: Feb. 13

Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns, UFC welterweight title; Kelvin Gastelum vs. Ian Heinisch; Pedro Munhoz vs. Jimmie Rivera; Uriah Hall vs. Chris Weidman

We’ll have to wait until mid-February for our first UFC title fight, but that’s fitting, because we’ve been waiting quite a long time for Usman-Burns. This welterweight championship fight was originally supposed to happen way back in July, but a bout with COVID for Burns and injuries for Usman forced this to be moved back over eight months. Burns was absolutely incandescent at the beginning of last year and stormed to the front of the line at 170, and we’ll see if he can recapture that momentum against one of the most smothering, powerful wrestlers in welterweight history.

The rest of the card is highlighted be a few top names trying to regain their old form. In April 2019, Kelvin Gastelum battled Israel Adesanya for the interim middleweight title and gave the undefeated current champ the fight of his life. He hasn’t looked the same since, and he could prove to be a major stepping stone for Ian Heinisch, who has one of the most intriguing skillsets at 185. Pedro Munhoz and Jimmie Rivera are longtime bantamweight contenders trying to get back in the title scene, while Chris Weidman, the former middleweight champion, is trying to put together his first winning streak since 2015 by beating powerful veteran Uriah Hall.

UFC Fight Night 185: Feb. 20

Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis; Ketlen Vieira vs. Yana Kunitskaya; Andrei Arlovski vs. Tom Aspinall

Heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis were originally scheduled to headline the show back on Nov. 28, before Blaydes tested positive for COVID and the fight was scrapped. Now, they’ll main-event a different weak ESPN+ card. Blaydes and Lewis is genuinely an important fight in the race for a heavyweight title shot, a fight between top-five contenders with contrasting styles: Blaydes, the ruthless ground-and-pound machine, and Lewis, the swang-n-banger who will just stand up if you take him down.

There’s another interesting heavyweight fight on the undercard, as Englishman Tom Aspinall, one of the better prospects at that division, looks for the biggest-name win of his career against former champion Andrei Arlovski. Arlovski is 41 years old, with 19 career losses, but still has enough in the tank to be a significant hurdle – just ask Tanner Boser. We also have a fight that could possibly determine Amanda Nunes‘ next victim at 135: Ketlen Vieira and Yana Kunitskaya have attained varying levels of hype over the last couple years, and someone’s got to step up from that division.

UFC Fight Night 186: Feb. 27

Dominick Reyes vs. Jiri Prochazka; Raoni Barcelos vs. Raphael Assuncao; Magomed Ankalaev vs. Nikita Krylov

Two really good light heavyweight fights to finish off this column. Dominick Reyes had an argument for the title of “uncrowned champ” after his controversial title loss to Jon Jones last year, but lost that claim after being smashed to pieces by the Polish Power of Jan Blachowicz in September. He has to rebuild his stock to get back into championship contention. He’ll have a hell of a lot on his hands: Jiri Prochazka, RIZIN’s former light heavyweight champion, is an insane savage from the Czech Republic who debuted with a wild knockout win over perennial top contender Volkan Oezdemir last year. The win instantly entered him into the upper reaches at 205, and he could be on the fast track.

Prochazka promises to be a factor at 205 for years to come. The same can be said for Magomed Ankalaev, a punishing counter-striker who’s won five straight. Krylov, the No. 8 ranked contender at light heavyweight, will be the highest-ranked opponent he’s ever faced. We’ll also see a potential star-maker fight at 135: Raoni Barcelos looked absolutely awesome in a win over Khalid Taha in November, putting out the kind of performance that convinced you he was ready for the next level. That next level is represented by Assuncao, the 38-year-old veteran who’s fought seemingly everyone at 135, and beaten a lot of them.

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