Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. This weekend is dominated by one of the UFC’s biggest shows of 2020: UFC 254, featuring the return of undefeated lightweight legend Khabib Nurmagomedov in one of his toughest tests to date.
There are other crucial fights on Saturday’s card – as usual, here are looks at the three bouts I’ll be watching closest.
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje
Khabib Nurmagomedov has undeniably achieved all-time legend status in the sport of mixed martial arts. The owner of the most impressive record in the world – 28-0, in a career where he has dominated almost every opponent he has ever faced – Khabib has been building a GOAT case right in front of our very eyes.
But Saturday will be one of the tests of Khabib’s life. Not only is he facing an absolute savage killer in knockout machine Justin Gaethje, Khabib is entering the fight coming off a significant personal loss. In June, Khabib lost his father, Abdulmanap, due to complications related to COVID-19. Abdulmanap was one of the towering figures of Eastern European MMA, and had guided his son’s career from the very beginning – he was Khabib’s trainer and best friend.
In the weeks leading up to this fight, the MMA media has asked Khabib what it’s like to prepare for a bout without his father so many times that it’s become ridiculous. You can tell that the constant reminders that his father is no longer at his side is wearing on him a little bit. You can’t help but wonder: facing one of the toughest opponents of his career, what effect might that have on the undefeated champion?
We won’t know that until Khabib steps into the cage. All we can go off is what we’ve seen throughout Khabib’s career, and what we’ve seen is one of the most dominant forces in the sport’s history. 16-0 when he signed with the UFC in 2012, Khabib had to take a longer road to the top due to injuries and recurring canceled fights. He finally won the title in 2018 after beating an outmatched injury replacement in Al Iaquinta, but he really became a worldwide star when he pounded the piss out of loudmouthed Irishman Conor McGregor in a legacy-securing performance.
That win came after months of Islamophobic trash-talk and literal felonies committed by McGregor and his posse – all that, plus McGregor’s worldwide superstar status, made it one of the biggest fights in the history of the UFC. In turn, it made Khabib a household name. Despite Dominick Cruz‘s ridiculous assertions that Conor getting his face beaten in was actually a tactical maneuver, it was a brilliant showcase of everything that makes Khabib special, as his his subsequent domination of the world-class Dustin Poirier last year.
You know exactly what Khabib wants to do: take you down, push you up against the cage, and beat you down until he either grabs a submission, TKOs you, or wins a unanimous decision. No one, ever, has been able to stop it. He’s one of the most overwhelming grappling forces of all time. He never tires, he’s freakishly strong, and has a skill in wrestling and sambo that has been honed since he could walk.
In McGregor, Khabib already faced one of the most feared striking forces in UFC history, and didn’t blink. He was never in trouble even during the stand-up exchanges, and dropped Conor with an overhand right in the second round. If Khabib can keep Conor McGregor on his back, why can’t he do it to Gaethje?
It’s a fascinating question. For one, Gaethje is bigger and stronger than McGregor, who built his name at featherweight, and although he rarely uses it, he has a considerable wrestling background: Gaethje was a Division I All-American at the University of Northern Colorado. He might stand a better chance than McGregor did at defending Khabib’s takedowns and keeping the fight standing, where he’s established himself as a pure violence machine since rising to prominence in the old WSOF in 2013.
This was supposed to be the long-awaited meeting of Khabib and Tony Ferguson, booked and canceled five separate times, perhaps the most cursed fight in MMA history. Instead, the son of an Arizona copper miner absolutely kicked the shit out of Ferguson in May and stole his spot, handing Ferguson what could be a career-altering beatdown.
Gaethje has the kind of knockout record you rarely see in high-level MMA: 22 wins, 19 KOs. He’s won four in a row by knockout, and don’t sleep on his leg kicks – they’re vicious, and could be an important equalizer in slowing down Khabib’s burst. But the real danger lies in his two fists. Gaethje is a haymaker thrower with crazy power, reveling in brutal violence and bathing in the blood of his enemies. However, his record is strangely devoid of real grapplers – Gaethje has only spent a total of 17 seconds in bottom position in the UFC, but that’s mainly because he’s been fighting guys who aren’t trying to grapple. In Khabib, he’ll be facing one of the best the sport’s ever seen at just that.
The first round or two will be critical. Khabib took the advantage immediately against McGregor, wearing him down throughout the first two rounds and ensuring that he could face down Conor on the feet in the third round without as much fear. It will be absolutely imperative that Gaethje stuffs those early takedowns: once you have Khabib on you, you’ve already lost. If he does that, Gaethje might have a fighting chance. For a guy with his kind of megaton power, that might be all he needs.
Robert Whittaker vs. Jared Cannonier
While an undisputed champion will be crowned at 155, the next title contender might be named at 185 on Saturday. Middleweight king Israel Adesanya stated in the immediate aftermath of his win over Paulo Costa last month that he had his eye on this fight in particular for his next opponent: he specifically named the 36-year-old Cannonier as the fighter he most wants to see next, should he beat Whittaker.
A former heavyweight, Cannonier had middling success at light heavyweight but came up short against the division’s best – he has losses to current champ Jan Blachowicz and two-time title challenger Dominick Reyes on his record – Cannonier has found a new lease on life since dropping to 185 in 2018. Cannonier’s considerable physical strength and striking power have been a difference-maker at his new division, a much better fit for his frame. He’s an efficient and accurate striker with great kicks, producing maximum power with minimum windup, and he’s got some crunching ground-and-pound. He’s patient, and hits you hard when he picks his spot.
With three knockout wins in three fights at middleweight, Cannonier is searching for that big signature win. After beating middling veteran David Branch and a 44-year-old Anderson Silva, Cannonier vaulted himself into the division’s elite with he detonated Scandinavia’s finest, Jack Hermansson, with a short uppercut in Denmark last September.
The 3-0 record comes with caveats: Branch was out of the UFC within a year, Silva is a shadow of his old self, and Hermansson is a grappler. In former champion Robert Whittaker, Cannonier can show that his game can stand up against some of the best the middleweight division has ever had to offer.
Last October, Whittaker lost the UFC middleweight title to Adesanya by second-round knockout in the performance that made Izzy a legend. A great, aggressive stand-up fighter with a mean head kick, Whittaker just couldn’t lay a finger on Adesanya, who was too quick and too cerebral. “Bobby Knuckles” desperately tried again and again to get inside Izzy’s great jab and prodigious reach, only for the challenger to end his night with a lightning-quick combination.
In the months after, Whittaker was open about feeling burned out and lacking motivation. For a time, he stopped training altogether. In June, he returned to the cage – badly needing a strong bounceback showing, he squeezed out a unanimous decision over Darren Till, a good Muay Thai kickboxer who formerly challenged for the belt at 170. A win is a win, but you might have wanted Whittaker to roll in there and kick some ass – instead, Whittaker at times seemed befuddled by a less aggressive and more calculating version of Till that we’ve often seen. Whittaker managed to find a way, using leg kicks and takedowns to win 48-47s across the board.
It was a winning performance from Whittaker, who has been in the deep waters many times in his career – he knows how to win when the pressure is on. By contrast, this is the biggest fight of Cannonier’s career. Whittaker is so technical and so skilled on the feet, and has so much big-fight experience, that it’s hard for me to take Cannonier here. But Cannonier has fists that can change a fight, and if he lands, we know where he’s headed next.
Casey Kenney vs. Nathaniel Wood
As I’ve detailed before, the UFC bantamweight division is wide open, and there’s ample opportunity for rising stars to quickly rise up towards the 135 elite. And buried on the prelims of UFC 254, there’s a fight between two very interesting young prospects who I think could be the next guy with their eyes on the prize at 135.
Kenney is coming in off an extremely quick turnaround, having fought Heili Alateng just three weeks ago. He looked tremendously impressive in that fight, battering the double-tough Alateng on the feet and barbecuing his ribcage with some vicious body kicks, winning a lopsided unanimous decision. It was a big step forward for an accomplished grappler: a state champion wrestler and junior national champ in judo, Kenney looks to have the all-around chops to really succeed.
I came away from the fight with Alateng almost certain that Kenney was a major rising star at 135. But I’m not going to count out Nathaniel Wood, a 27-year-old Londoner who has won four of his first five fights in the Octagon, including a run of three straight submissions from June 2018 to last March.
Wood entered the UFC after a strong run as the bantamweight champion in Cage Warriors, a major promotion in the British Isles that has produced plenty of strong talent. In Cage Warriors, Wood was a knockout artist – he won all five of his fights in that promotion by KO, including one over UFC vet Vaughan Lee. But once he got to the UFC, he started tapping everyone out.
Trained by longtime UFC veteran and most English man alive Brad Pickett, Wood has what I’d describe as an “opportunistic” submission game. He’s no wizard, but he’s always hunting for the finish, and he’s great at grabbing hold of something out of a scramble. When those chances open up, he seizes them.
Two good young fighters with significant all-around ability. I expect this fight to be fun and competitive, wherever it ends up.
The Big Fight 