By Jake Long, Senior Gambling Correspondent

On Saturday, Oct. 24, we are getting the long-awaited matchup between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Fergus–

*David whispers in my ear*

“Oh, he lost to Justin Gaethje?”

Alright then.

On Saturday, Oct. 24, UFC 254 brings us the long-awaited matchup between legitimate psycho killer Khabib Nurmagomedov and the underrated Justin Gaethje for the undisputed lightweight title. Casuals may be quick to put Nurmagomedov over in the main event, but the other battles on the card could feature some interesting outcomes for sharps like us.

With over half of the main card fights featuring -230 and up favorites, the task for us degenerates is to find the value in round betting, winning method, and props. For each fight on the main card and a few on the undercard, I will provide my best bets for your money and my always correct, never wrong, analysis. Carpe Forte!

(All statistics from Sherdog and all odds from DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

Prelims

Da Un Jung (-360) vs Sam Alvey (+275)

The Pick: Un Jung inside the distance (-105) (odds from SportBet)

The first pick comes from a matchup between a guy who has been beating the hell out of his competitors and a guy who has been getting the hell beaten out of him by his competitors. Da Un Jung is fighting in only his third UFC fight, but he brings a 13-2 record into the fight with those loses coming all the way back in 2015.

Sam Alvey has fought in UFC for six years, winning his fair share of mid-card fights but always seemingly falling short against the big names; “Smile’n” has lost his last four fights, with two of them coming by TKO in the early rounds. I don’t think Da Un Jung is a household name yet, but based on his first two fights in the UFC he’ll be competing with the big boys for titles in a few years.

Don’t overthink this one too much and take the young buck to teach the veteran a lesson and finish the fight inside the distance.

Alex Oliveira ( -139) vs Shavkat Rakhmonov (+115)

The Pick: Rakhmonov (+115)

This fight caught my eye immediately when I heard that Elizeu Zaleski had been scratched from the card. You’ve got Oliveira who is a legitimate bad ass that got sort of knocked around during a rough three fight stretch in 2018-2019 going against Rakhmonov who is coming into a UFC ring for the first time after dominating M-1 and the KZMMAF.

Oliveira has had a couple wins since those losses, but one was a split against Max Griffin. That fight was fun to watch, but at no point did it seem like “Cowboy” was a clear-cut winner. Sure, you can say “Nomad” showed up and beat a bunch of jabronis in Kazakhstan to get here but go watch the violence he commits on some of those guys.

Maybe he isn’t ready to be a top contender in UFC yet, but I am willing to take the plus odds on a guy who not a lot of people have seen versus a guy who has a ton of exposure but has struggled recently.

Stefan Struve (-125) vs Tai Tuivasa (+100)

The Pick: Tuivasa (+100)

Not much analysis for this one. Both of these guys have struggled lately, but I think “Skycraper” has struggled more consistently over the years. “Bam Bam” comes into this fight and gets back to his winning ways.

Main Card

Magomed Ankalaev (-295) vs Ion Cuțelaba (+225)

The Pick: Ankalaev in R1 (.5u at +225) or R2 (.5u at +400)

Being an MMA referee is a hard job. But Kevin MacDonald took what looked like a great fight from us in Feburary 2020 when he erroneously stopped Ankalaev and Cutelaba in the first round because he thought Cutelaba was out on his feet.

Spoiler alert: Ankalaev was going to win regardless. This rematch has been in the works for eight months now with COVID-19 doing everything in its power to stop it. Ankalaev has spent the last few years punching dudes’ skulls in and I think he continues that trend against a guy who is good but very aggressive.

None of Cutelaba’s last five fights have gone the distance and against a guy who also likes to finish inside the distance, I am taking Ankalaev to win by KO in Rounds 1 or 2.

Lauren Murphy (-240) vs. Liliya Shakirova (+188)

The Pick: Lauren Murphy by Decision (-152)

Another fight on the card that faced COVID-19 issues features a brand new UFC fighter in Shakirova going up against a flyweight title contender in Lauren Murphy. Originally, “Lucky” was supposed to fight Cynthia Calvillo in a contender’s matchup that was changed due to Calvillo’s positive COVID test.

Although Shakirova is a great fighter in her own right, Murphy comes into this matchup with a ton of momentum after beating Roxanne Modafferi a few months back. “Lucky” is a very patient fighter which is exemplified by her last nine bouts going the distance. Bookmakers seem to be aware of this and have jacked the odds up to –455 for the fight to over 2.5 rounds.

Because of those high odds, I will probably stay away from this fight, but I can see a little value in Murphy by decision against a relatively green opponent.

 Jacob Malkoun (+205) vs Phil Hawes (-265)

The Pick: Jacob Malkoun (+205)

I had to reach out to our fearless leader, David Statman, to learn about these guys because I knew nothing about them. Despite his claim that Hawes knocked a dude out in Contender Series, I’m not comfortable putting money on either one… so that means we’re taking the ‘dog that Bobby Knucks has been talking about!

Alexander Volkov (-182) vs. Walt Harris (+145)

The Pick: Volkov by KO (1u at +250) and Harris by KO (1u at +210)

You want to see two big ole’ boys go punch each other? Well I have a fight for you. Alexander Volkov and Walt Harris will square off in a hoss fight with both guys coming off loses to big names in the UFC heavyweight division.

However, if you go back and watch those fights, you will see a difference in how the two men lost: Volkov was beaten by Curtis Blaydes in a unanimous decision after Blaydes spent 5 rounds taking Volkov to the ground and Harris spent R1 beating up Alistair Overeem before getting pummeled in a ground situation for a TKO in R2. “Drago” comes into this fighting needing a big win to get himself into title contention and I think he gets it versus Harris.

“The Big Ticket” will come out aggressive and allow Volkov to play to his strength of taking some punches and then dealing out even more damage. But that also means Harris could land one big punch leading to a ground and pound on Volkov. I think this all adds up to a fight were one of these big strong boys knocks the other out.

Robert Whittaker (-112) vs. Jared Cannonier (-112)

The Pick: Robert Whittaker by decision (+300)

This is as big of a fight as you can get without a title on the line. We have the guy who Izzy Adesanya beat for the Middleweight title going up against the guy who Izzy has basically already called out for his next chance. In preparation for this pick, I went back and watched a few of their recent fights to get a sense for how they will come into this one.

This led me to the conclusion that Robert Whittaker is going to brutalize Jared Cannonier in the middle of the Octagon. Obviously Cannonier is a great fighter in his own right, but some of these recent wins have been very… meh. He beat David Branch with what I considered to be a lucky shot after getting dominated on the ground for R1, then he beat Anderson Silva by hurting his leg followed by a victory over Jack Hermansson where again I think he got a bit lucky.

Clearly 185 is his best division so far, but I just can’t get behind a guy whose only wins have been (in my opinion) fluky. This leads me to Whittaker. A lot of people thought he should have lost the rematch against Yoel Romero, and he didn’t look great against Adesanya or Darren Till even though he beat the later. There is just no way in good conscience I can bet against Bobby Knuckles as he tries to get back to the top of the board.

When is the last time we got almost even odds just for a victory? I’m so confident, I am taking it a step further and going for the extra juice by taking the winning method by decision because I think he stays far enough away from Cannonier to survive his haymakers.

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje

The Pick: Nurmagomedov by Finish (2u at -110) and Nurmagomedov in R3 (.5u at +700) or R4 (.5u at +700)

Khabib Nurmagomedov might be the scariest human being (?) on planet Earth and the dude is only 5’ 10” and 155 lbs. He is so incredibly well-rounded and lavishes in the destruction he causes to opponents. Go watch his fight with Conor McGregor and what Khabib did after winning. You can have whatever opinions you want on Conor, but the guy is a legitimately great fighter… and Khabib just spend 3.5 rounds making him his punching bag. Then he jumped the cage to pick a fight with Dillon Danis, a cornerman of Conor’s. He is a psychopath in a sport which rewards depravity in the ring.

Then we have Justin Gaethje, the interim lightweight champion and a certified badass in his own right. As I mentioned in my intro, this was supposed to be Tony Ferguson’s spot until COVID-19 cause travel issues for Khabib. Gaethje stepped into the spot and took the interim title for himself. “The Highlight” has only lost two fights, but both came against top names in the division; Since then he has absolved himself and become a top guy. He knocks out basically everyone and hates going to R3 or beyond. Just go watch what he did to Ferguson to get some context for just how good this guy is.

With all of that said, how can you pick against Khabib? He beats guys in so many ways that I can’t even pick a winning method. But I am willing to drop a full 2u on Khabib by way of Finish because I think he walks in and pops Gaethje’s head off his body like a zit. If you want a little more excitement, I see value in bettering on Nurmagomedov in R3 or R4 at +700. “The Eagle” stays unbeaten!