Three Fights to Watch: Sep. 26, 2020

Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. This weekend’s action is jam-packed, headlined by a UFC card with two title fights, a Bellator show in Italy, and offerings everywhere from Rizin to Cage Warriors to Titan FC. It’s gonna be good!

As always, here are looks at three of the fights I’m going to be watching closest over the next couple days:

Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa, UFC 253

Yeah, obviously. Saturday’s UFC middleweight title clash between Israel Adesanya and Paulo Costa has become one of the most hyped fights of 2020, bolstered by some creative and often hilarious shit-talk between the two fighters. But nonsense aside, this is a bout that promises greatness between two of the world’s most dangerous pound-for-pound strikers.

As the old saying goes, styles make fights. And these two fighters’ styles complement each other well. Earlier this week I looked back at Costa’s last fight, an unforgettable three-round war with Yoel Romero last year, and it showcases everything that makes him so good and so entertaining: a relentless pressure style, a willingness to throw bombs and a granite chin.

And as we saw in Adesanya’s last bout, a snoozer unanimous decision over Romero – I personally put almost all the blame on that fight being lackluster on Romero, who basically turned the fight into a farce by staying in a turtle shell for five rounds and hoping Izzy got antsy – he’s not the type of fighter to just walk in and launch missiles on his own. Izzy isn’t built that way. The lanky Nigerian-New Zealand kickboxer is one of the most sparkling technical strikers to ever grace the sport of mixed martial arts, but he’s also very disciplined, and he’s at his best when his opponent is willing to give him something to work with.

Izzy’s run to the UFC title over the past few years was breathtaking. A world-class professional kickboxer, Adesanya surged to the top by beating a host of impressive names: the sneaky-good Marvin Vettori, battle-tested gatekeepers Brad Tavares and Derek Brunson, the sport’s GOAT in Anderson Silva, the absolutely badass Kelvin Gastelum in an epic war. Finally, Izzy put on a virtuoso performance when he knocked out Robert Whittaker to claim the title in Whittaker’s home country of Australia.

It reminded me a lot of Lyoto Machida‘s rise to the top of the light heavyweight heap a decade ago. Both were incredibly technical strikers who rolled through everyone in their path to win the title undefeated – no one could figure them out. But Machida eventually found his Shogun Rua, the guy who was able to put pressure on him and figure out the winning formula.

Is Paulo Costa his Shogun Rua? I have no idea. Izzy is so damn good – his stand-up so fluid and deadly, his head movement excellent, his 80-inch reach so hard to get inside. He’s one of the single best counter-strikers we’ve ever seen in the sport. At times, he almost reminds me of a prime Anderson Silva, which is the highest compliment I can give a fighter. It seemed like Silva had a supercomputer in his head: he was able to instantly calculate the exact distance he needed to be to pick his opponent apart in artful ways, and seemed to always know what was coming next. Adesanya has shown hints of that same ability. At times he seems to see things in slow motion.

Against fighters like Whittaker and Gastelum, he’s shown a great adeptness for dealing with a fighter rushing at him, which Costa seems likely to do. And although Costa is extremely tough, we saw him struggle at times from distance against a similarly long striker in Uriah Hall, and got he legitimately hurt in punching exchanges with Hall and Romero.

Costa’s power and aggression are formidable, however. He hasn’t found an opponent yet that he hasn’t been able to cut off against the cage, trapping them to throw withering flurries of punches. There are very few fighters alive who can withstand a barrage from Costa. Romero, whose chin has always been insane, was one of them. Is Izzy also one of them? Will he give Costa the chance?

It’s two undefeated fighters with contrasting but complementary styles who are almost undoubtedly keep it on the feet. It’s the aggressive knockout machine against the silky counter-fighter. The belt is on the line. It doesn’t get much better.

Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz, UFC 253

By all rights, Dominick Reyes may already be the uncrowned light heavyweight champion of the world. Many MMA fans and journalists believe that it was Reyes who took the first three rounds of his title fight with the great Jon Jones back in February, only for the champion to rally, win the last two, then take home a very controversial unanimous decision.

I know Reyes feels like he deserves a belt around his waist. And by the end of the night Saturday, he may have it. With Jones moving up to heavyweight, Reyes’s fight with Polish top contender Jan Blachowicz has been turned into a fight for the now-vacant UFC light heavyweight title, and deservedly so.

Over the past three years, Reyes has emerged as one of the top strikers in a 205-pound division full of guys who can knock you out. He set an absolutely blistering pace from the outset against Jones – he faded late, but it felt like the performance of his life, and it should have been rewarded with gold. His fight last year against former middleweight champ Chris Weidman felt like his star-making performance. Reyes is tall and athletic with thumping power in his kicks, and as he showed against Weidman, his hands.

I wonder if Blachowicz will try to take him down and work on the ground. The former KSW light heavyweight champ developed into a star overseas with his grappling acumen: he once had a run of six submission wins in seven fights. But Blachowicz has continued to learn and grow in the 13 years since his professional debut, and he’s turned into a fighter seemingly quite comfortable standing in the pocket.

It’s a good thing too, because he’s got some crunching power. Blachowicz was most recently seen savaging Corey Anderson with a short right hook back in March, less than a year after he completely removed former middleweight king Luke Rockhold from consciousness with a backpedaling left hook.

This is another fight that could produce fireworks. Both guys are strong, effective stand-up fighters with KO potential, but I’m fascinated to see if Blachowicz tries to go back to the old well and take him to the ground – that’s the one area where you feel like he has a discernible advantage over Reyes. Blachowicz has developed into a very well-rounded fighter, and we haven’t seen Reyes’ grappling tested on that level yet.

A new champion will be crowned, but both fighters need to watch the hell out. The winner will almost undoubtedly face the winner of Thiago SantosGlover Teixeira whenever that fight eventually takes place, which could mean a date with Santos, one of the most feared strikers in the sport and someone who has already knocked Blachowicz out once.

Reyes and Santos both have legitimate cases for having beaten Jones. That fight, I think, would send us on our first step towards having a clear world No. 1 at 205. Saturday night, Reyes has to do his part to get us there.

Fabian Edwards vs. Costello van Steenis, Bellator Milan

Poor Leon Edwards. The British welterweight has built himself into one of the top welterweight contenders in the world over the course of an eight-fight UFC win streak, but the guy can’t seem to get a fight booked in 2020 – no matter how hard he tries, no matter how much shit he talks to every fighter at 170, nobody’s taking the bait.

I have no clue when we’re going to see Leon Edwards fight again. But, you can see AN Edwards fight this very weekend! Leon’s younger brother Fabian is undefeated at 9-0 in his pro career, and on Saturday he’ll be headlining a Bellator card for the first time in his career.

I first noticed the younger Edwards last May, when he knocked out Portuguese veteran Falco Neto Lopes with one of the most visually hilarious KOs I’ve ever seen:

OK, that guy just up-kicked me twice in the face. Better stand there and lean over him, what could go wrong? Edwards is a very intriguing young fighter: I like his athleticism and his striking game, the way he moves around the cage, and his ability to fluidly mix in kicks and jumping knees.

This fight with van Steenis will be the biggest test of his career. Van Steenis is one of the brightest Dutch prospects we’ve seen come around in years: his only loss since 2016 was against John Salter, a jiu-jitsu ace and excellent middleweight who somehow fell through the UFC cracks. Van Steenis seemingly hurt Salter with every shot he threw, with the veteran relying on his grappling expertise to grind out a decision win. The Dutchman has some real power, as evidenced when he ended Mike Shipman‘s 13-fight win streak by blasting him with a short elbow from the clinch and knocking him out with ground-and-pound.

These Bellator Europe cards are generally pretty fun, and showcase talent you otherwise wouldn’t often see. I’m looking forward to this one. It’s a fight between two of Bellator’s best young middleweights, and you get the feeling that a win will be a major springboard for either one of these guys.

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