Another fight weekend is here, baby, and we love to see it. This week’s action features one of the deepest UFC cards we’ve seen in a while, and all my attention is going to be focused on UFC Vegas 11 on Saturday night.

With that in mind, here are the three fights I’m going to be watching closest:

Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley, UFC Vegas 11

This is the first UFC event I’m genuinely really excited about in a long time. This card is deep with interesting fights – I’m not even talking about a co-main battle between Donald Cerrone and Niko Price that seems almost guaranteed to deliver action, or a middleweight bout between lanky sniper Kevin Holland and tough Brit Darren Stewart that will also have my eyes glued to the TV.

Of all the fights on the card, it’s actually the main event – a welterweight fight between top contender Colby Covington and former champ Tyron Woodley – that seems most likely to be really boring. But, at the same time, it’s going to ask one fascinating and important question: is Tyron Woodley done?

As recently as last year, T-Wood was UFC’s welterweight king, master of all he surveyed. He won the title from the great Robbie Lawler in 2016 and held the belt for the better part of three years – the longest run we’ve seen since the heyday of Georges St-Pierre.

Woodley was a badass. A two-time All-American wrestler at the University of Missouri and an explosive athlete, T-Wood had a reputation early in his career as a boring decision machine, but somewhere along the line he discovered that he had monster power in his right hand. When he started letting the bombs fly, he became one of the world’s best. When Woodley knocked out Lawler – MMA’s all-time Violence God, an unkillable savage who thrived and reveled in the sport’s bloodiest wars – it was a paradigm-shifting moment.

But the Tyron Woodley we’ve seen in his last two fights has been a different Tyron Woodley. First, Woodley was absolutely dominated by the ascending Kamaru Usman last March, losing all five rounds and his title. Then, he got shut out again against the rapidly exploding star Gilbert Burns in May, making it 10 consecutive rounds that Woodley has lost.

Against Usman, Woodley looked physically overwhelmed for the first time in his career, and could seemingly do nothing to stop one of the most powerful wrestlers the welterweight division’s ever seen from doing whatever he wanted. Against Burns, he got hurt early on the feet and seemingly checked out, offering little resistance from there on out. In neither fight did he ever show a shred of urgency, and it had to be scary to watch for T-Wood fans.

This fight with Covington is probably the last chance Woodley will get to prove he still has staying power at the top of the welterweight division. Covington is one of the most odious characters in mixed martial arts – an outspoken Trump supporter and cringeworthy troll – and I got great satisfaction in watching Usman break his jaw last year, but he’s undoubtedly an elite 170-pounder.

Himself a former All-American, Covington is a grinding top-control wrestler who has been a unanimous decision machine in recent years. He throws an endless pitter-patter of strikes to set up his takedown, and stays on his opponent with an extremely impressive pace that doesn’t let up. Covington wasn’t able to assert his style against the physically superior Usman, himself a cardio freak who had no problems fighting at Covington’s pace. Instead the fight was contested on the feet, where Usman was more powerful, technical and dangerous: the champ hurt him multiple times before finishing him in the fifth.

In his most recent fights, Woodley has retreated to his worst instincts. Long criticized for waiting too long for his deadly overhand right, he’s become only more gun-shy. But if he can wake the hell back up, he can succeed: he can wrestle with Covington, and he has much more power on the feet.

We’ll find out Saturday night whether Woodley still has some dog in him. If not, Covington will most likely outwork him to another decision.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Gerald Meerschaert, UFC Vegas 11

It’s easy to see when Dana White has fallen in love with a fighter. And he has absolutely fallen in love with Khamzat Chimaev. A Chechen-born Swedish middleweight, Chimaev has spent just over nine minutes in the Octagon and is already being acclaimed by some members of his hype train as the next Khabib Nurmagomedov.

That, obviously, is a pretty ridiculous proclamation to make at this stage, but I can see why Chimaev’s had the rocket strapped to him: he was almost comically dominant in wins over John Phillips and Rhys McKee, fights that occurred only 10 days apart, one of the quickest turnarounds in the modern era of UFC.

In both his fights, Chimaev took his opponents down immediately, dragged them to his corner and wailed on them until the referee either stopped the fight or he found a choke – Phillips made it to the second round, but only after enduring a withering barrage of ground and pound strikes. Dana White has always had a hard-on for guys who take fights on short notice and kick ass, and considering the fact that Chimaev took absolutely no damage in both his wins (both Phillips and McKee combined to land a total of ONE strike in two fights), it’s a wonder he had to wait two whole months for his next fight.

White loves Chimaev so much that he pulled a move that’s almost unheard of: he double-booked him. Chimaev reportedly has a fight with Demian Maia, a BJJ legend and one of middleweight’s most revered veterans, scheduled for November. His opponent on Saturday, Gerald Meerschaert, has taken that as a major insult, and he should.

Meerschaert is the biggest test Chimaev has ever faced, a veteran of 44 pro fights and 13 years in the game. The Wisconsin native and alto saxophonist has served as a tough gatekeeper in the 185 division for a few years now, and he could have something for Chimaev on the ground: he’s a BJJ black belt with 23 wins by submission, or nearly three times as many pro fights as Chimaev has in total. If the first two fights are any indication, Chimaev will rush him immediately, and Meerschaert is a guy you can take down – but he’s much more comfortable and dangerous operating off his back than Phillips or McKee.

We’ve seen so little of Chimaev in the cage, and the two fights we’ve seen have gone exactly the same way. How is his submission defense? How is his striking? We don’t know! I hope Meerschaert, a battle-tested veteran, can ask some of those questions of Chimaev. “Borz” is certainly a very exciting and interesting prospect who appears to have a very high ceiling, but my spite for Dana White is eternal, and I do so love seeing his golden boys get derailed.

Johnny Walker vs. Ryan Spann, UFC Vegas 11

Because sometimes the hype train crashes. It’s what happened to Johnny Walker. A tall, crazy athletic light heavyweight with a penchant for destroying opponents in absolutely sick ways, Walker blasted his way up the rankings with three explosive knockouts from Nov. 2018 to March 2019, in a combined time of less than three minutes. His 36-second knockout flying knee KO of the very good Misha Cirkunov was stunning and badass, and I was all aboard.

Watching Walker rocket to the top was downright exhilarating. When he matched up with top-notch wrestler Corey Anderson in November, you wondered how the Brazilian would top himself. Instead, Anderson dropped him with an overhand right and a left hook, got on Walker and pounded him out. Then, in March, Ukrainian veteran Nikita Krylov controlled him in a unanimous decision, repeatedly taking him down over 15 minutes.

Hype train, meet ravine. Maybe Walker is what he appears to be: a fighter whose unorthodox striking approach leaves him vulnerable to being hurt over the top, with suspect cardio and poor takedown defense. Maybe he’s a guy who, if he can’t get someone out early, will wilt. But he’s so powerful, and so athletic, that I still hold out hope he can find another groove.

But he’s got to get it going soon. If not, he’ll be another notch for the rising Ryan Spann, who has started his career with four straight UFC wins. Spann is a physical specimen at 6-foot-5 with one of the longest reaches at 205 – he’s a rare light heavyweight who can match Walker’s physical dimensions. Still developing at 29 years old, Spann reminds one a bit of Phil Davis: a good wrestler who can use his length in the striking game, but who generally wants to get his opponent on the ground or up against the cage and work for submissions.

I think Spann is a guy that Walker can knock out. But if he doesn’t do it quick, are we going to see Spann turn Walker into just another speed bump? An exciting fighter’s career is at a crossroads here, and I’m fascinated to see what happens.