Yes, Aleksandar Rakic’s dominant unanimous decision win over Anthony Smith on Saturday may have been extremely boring. It was one of the UFC light heavyweight division’s most skilled strikers instead taking down a washed-up veteran and laying on him for 15 minutes. But it was an important fight – the first of several at 205 over the next several weeks.
Jon Jones has cruelly ruled over the UFC light heavyweight division with an iron fist for nearly a decade: the only other man to hold the gold since 2011 was Daniel Cormier, during various interregnums caused by Jones’ arrests and failed drug tests. Stupid dickhead that he is, Jones is still one of the greatest fighters who ever lived. But with Jones relinquishing the title and moving up to the heavyweight division, potentially to challenge heavyweight GOAT Stipe Miocic, the chance has opened up for the top contenders at 205 to become champions and legends in their own right.
Rakic’s win, in a battle of fighters with top-10 rankings, was the first big domino to fall since Jones’ abdication. Rakic publicly proclaimed after having his hand raised that he wanted a title shot next, but I think most would agree that he’s still one or two fights away, especially after his aesthetically unpleasing win over Smith.
Rakic could very well still be the next big thing at 205. He’s a young, powerful and technically sound kickboxer who’s shown flair for the exciting knockout, and it was genuinely encouraging to see him stay on the ground with Smith, a fighter with a dangerous submission game, and maintain complete control. But he’ll have to wait in line: over the next few weeks, we’ll establish a new pecking order at 205.
Jones’ departure means that the previously announced fight between Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz on Sep. 26 will now be for the vacant title – UFC 253, which is set to be main-evented by a middleweight title fight between real-life Tekken character Israel Adesanya and guy-who-totally-isn’t-on-steroids Paulo Costa, now all of a sudden looks like arguably the biggest UFC event of the year.
To many, Reyes should already have the belt around his waist. The former Stony Brook football player went five rounds with Jones in the former champ’s final title defense in February, and most (including myself) felt that he was the rightful winner. Reyes came out striking at a breakneck pace, clearly winning the first two rounds and appearing to edge a much closer third – Jones claimed the final two after Reyes slowed down.
It was the fight of Reyes’ life, and it had to be miserably disappointing to walk away with only a controversial decision loss to show for it. In that fight, however, he truly gained respect as one of the very best light heavyweights in the world. He’s a tall and lanky southpaw striker with KO power in his hands and his feet who stands out even in a division filled with guys who can knock you out. The loss to Jones was only the first of his pro career. Blachowicz will be a strong test: he’s not the kind of aggressive pressure fighter who has given Reyes issues, but he’s a willing and able grappler with a capable submission game who also has the ability to absolutely sleep dudes on the feet.
Reyes-Blachowicz will likely be two guys circling and throwing heavy strikes, and either one could score the KO. The winner will almost undoubtedly face the winner of the Thiago Santos-Glover Teixeira fight on Sep. 12. Santos has his own case as an uncrowned champ, giving Jones one of the fights of his life on a blown-out knee in July 2019, and winning on one judge’s scorecard.
“Marreta” – Portuguese for “sledgehammer” – is one of the most overpowering fighters at 205. He’s the only man to beat Blachowicz since early 2017, putting the Pole to sleep with a backpedaling right hook last February. Santos is intense, immensely entertaining, and he has one of the best highlight reels of any current UFC fighter. He’s a master of the traditional Brazilian martial art of capoeira, and he’s basically Edson Barboza’s evolved form:
Provided he’s fully healed from that knee injury, I think Santos has the best chance of anyone to leave this whole situation with the belt. It’s a division full of strikers, and no one at 205 has more malice in the shots he throws than Santos. But the 40-year-old Teixeira is a tough matchup for anyone: he’s been near the top of the heap at light heavyweight for seemingly forever, a tough and strong veteran with a good submission wrestling base and withering ground-and-pound.
One-sided losses to Teixeira and Rakic have pushed Anthony Smith, who challenged for the title in 2018, out of the immediate picture. Volkan Oezdemir, another relatively recent title challenger, is also likely on the outside looking in due to losses to Smith, Reyes and Jiri Prochazka, along with a split decision win over Rakic that most people thought he lost. Meanwhile, the departure of Corey Anderson to Bellator leaves the division short one more top-10 fighter who’d be looking to find an angle in the coming weeks.
That likely leaves Rakic – who still appears to be searching for that big signature win at 205 – sitting back at No. 5, perhaps waiting for the loser of one of those fights. Or, you could pair him with the division’s other hot young star, the aforementioned Prochazka, who could have a rocket strapped on him with another big win.
The dangerous and extremely confident Czech striker jumped to the UFC last year after reigning as Rizin’s light heavyweight champion, making the move on an eight-fight knockout streak that included the scalps of UFC veterans Jake Heun, Fabio Maldonado and C.B. Dollaway, along with former Strikeforce champ “King Mo” Lawal.
The UFC tossed him directly into the deep end: his debut fight in July against Oezdemir, an established top contender, was one of the most challenging debuts we’ve seen for a UFC fighter in a while. Prochazka passed that test with flying colors. He walked in, put his hands down, danced around, showed Oezdemir’s considerable punching power no respect, threw some shit from weird angles, then knocked Oezdemir the fuck out with a right hand early in the second.
Prochazka is absolutely insane, and he has the highest-variance future of any of the guys in the upper reaches of the UFC light heavyweight division. One could see him continue to knock everyone out – seriously, doing that to Oezdemir is an incredibly impressive feat – or he could try to put his hands down against someone like Thiago Santos and get absolutely mauled. He doesn’t have his next fight set, and one would have to expect he’ll get a big name. A fight with Rakic could make all the sense in the world.
Whatever happens, the UFC light heavyweight landscape is going to look a lot different very soon, and the title is most likely ending up long-term around the waists of one of the six guys I just talked about: Reyes, Blachowicz, Santos, Teixeira, Rakic, Prochazka. Jon Jones is gone, the king is dead – it’s about time for a new one.