By Jacob Long – Senior Gambling Correspondent

On Saturday, August 15, UFC will run their fourth PPV show of the COVID-19 era following UFC 251 – Usman vs Masvidal, a card which delivered a lot of chalk in the gambling scene. Featuring a main event rubber match between Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier for the UFC Heavyweight Championship, the UFC 252 card seems to hold a lot of intrigue with several up-and-comers challenging veterans. For each fight on the main card and a few on the undercard, I will provide odds and picks for the winner, as well as one additional bet that I believe holds value.

(All odds via DraftKings as of 8/12 and all stats via Sherdog)

Undercard

Ashley Yoder vs Livia Renata Souza

The pick: Livia Renata Souza (-162)

This will be both fighters first bout since 2019 as both women lost their latest matchup and found themselves injured to close out the year. Now healthy and looking to get back to contention, the question is, who is ready to move up in the hierarchy of the strawweight division? My money is going on “The Brazilian Gangster” at -162. Neither woman has been able to find great success in the UFC with Yoder holding a record of 2-4 and Souza holding a record of 2-1 (one win by split decision) in the promotion. However, Souza has demonstrated her ability as a submission master in Invicta and other smaller promotions while Yoder found herself tapping out often in her early career (4 losses via sub). Look for the Brazilian to try and wear out Yoder early and get her into a vulnerable position in round 3. If your book has the option, betting Souza by Submission will probably hold value as well.

Jim Miller vs Vinc Pichel

The pick: Vinc Pichel by Decision (+180)

Additional Picks: Fight to go the Distance (-103)

This fight has the potential to get pretty weird. With Jim Miller being the picture definition of a grizzled veteran – 12 years in the UFC, 35 UFC fights – and Vinc Pichel appearing to be something of a growing contender – 8 years in UFC, 7 fights – but Pichel actually being the older fighter (36 years old, 37 years old, respectively), it could seem hard to call a winner. “From Hell” has only had 5 fights in the past six years, leaving him without any real trends to pick apart. Miller loves to get guys on the ground and try to choke them out.

Sometimes it works (see Guida, Clay) and sometimes it doesn’t (see Oliveira, Charles), but it always gives him a chance to win. Pichel wants to stand and strike (8 wins by KO) and has only tapped out once in his career. So why don’t I take Miller by Decision or Submission? I think “From Hell” is going to goad A-10 into standing and fighting with him for at least two rounds where Pichel will land more strikes and get the points for those rounds. Pichel is also no slouch when it comes to wrestling and fighting from his back if the matchup dictates that style a little more. My additional bet is for the fight to go the distance, just doubling down on my analysis already, I don’t see either of these guys going for a quick finish as long as Pichel knows what he is up against.

Main Card

John Dodson vs Merab Dvalishvili

The pick: Merab Dvalishvili by Decision (-143)

Additional pick: None

John Dodson is a guy who is kept around as a legit fighter that new guys can beat for credibility or give vets someone to get back to their feet against, and I see that happening in this bout vs Dvalishvili. The line is too high for me to bet “The Machine” straight up, but I see some decent value in betting on him as the winner by decision based on his history as a patient and stable fighter. If you’re looking for a sensible underdog to put a sprinkle on, I can see the value in betting Dodson by way of Finish (+340), but I can’t put money there in good conscience.

Junior Dos Santos vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The pick: Junior Dos Santos (+115)

Additional pick: Total rounds over 1.5 (+101)

These guys have a few things in common: neither are going to take the other to the ground, both are going to throw punches, and both got their heads caved in by Francis Ngannou. Their recent fights with Ngannou are what guided me to the Over 1.5 rounds for this fight, because I don’t think either guy wants to repeat what happened there. JDS also lost his last fight vs Curtis Blaydes in a short time, albeit in the second round. These guys are going to spend most of the fight punching each other and I am just drawn to the veteran savvy of Junior Dos Santos.

Although he has lost his last two fights, the Ngannou loss came after an unfortunate blow to the back of the head. As for Rozenstruik, two of his last three wins came via first round KO, but when he came up against a veteran in Alistair Overeem he seemed outmatched for much of the fight. I think Overeem is a step above JDS, but “Cigano” is still a bad dude who I think can stay alive against Rozenstruik’s power and take the fight all three rounds. However, if your book offers good value on a parlay of Rozenstruik by KO in R1, I wouldn’t blame you for considering it.

Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera

The pick: Sean O’Malley by KO (+150)

Additional pick: O’Malley in R1-R2 (+160)

Maybe I am getting caught up in the hype, maybe I am distracted by the bright hair, or maybe I can’t see past a few cool knockouts… but I think Sean O’Malley is the next big thing. “Sugar” Sean is on a roll right now and tearing through the Bantamweight division. Even before his insane knockout of Eddie Wineland in June, he was dominating the bout and almost seemed to be toying with his opponent before the final blow. I know Marlon Vera is no slouch and has some quality wins to his name, but I think O’Malley comes out and rocks him early.

Stipe Miocic vs Daniel Cormier

The pick: Miocic (-106)

Additional pick: Total rounds under 2.5 (+110)

Full disclosure: I’m a big Cormier guy. I love the story of him beating everyone in Strikeforce, then beating (almost) everyone in UFC – he’s a big guy but it’s easy to root for him anyway. With that being said, if you watched the two previous fights between Miocic and Cormier, then you know they are two evenly matched guys who split 1-1 because of a few punches going the right way. In their second fight, both guys wore down as the fight went on, but I want to draw you attention to just the fourth round of that fight where Miocic changed his strategy to attack the body of DC and wear him down even more. Eventually it left DC defenseless to the knockout blows.

To me, this shows a strategic edge for Miocic and his corner as he figured out what worked and didn’t work. I think he comes out in this fight looking for openings and taking advantage where possible to retain his title and send Cormier into retirement as a loser. As for the method, I can see value in Miocic by Decision however I am not confident it will make it that far as evidenced by my total rounds pick. I think the changes in Miocic’s strategy will take effect early and they won’t make it past the third round.